LONDON, July 6, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Global Analysis of Electric Traction Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles : Magnet-less Motors to See Adoption due to Expected Supply Chain Issues with Permanent Magnet Motors
Frost & Sullivan expects permanent magnet motors (PMMs) to dominate the electric and hybrid vehicle (xEV) motors market. PMMs will constitute over 90% of the total electric traction motor market by 2020. Uncertain rare element (RE) magnet supply will remain a challenge for PMM cost optimization. The 40 to 70 kW range will be the most used range of output, with most original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) having different segments of hybrid and electric vehicles (xEVs) in this space through to 2020. PMMs will continue their dominance across all segments of xEVs with full hybrid vehicles (FHEVs) accounting for the majority of the overall uptake. However, induction and magnet-less switched reluctance (SR) motors to find increased installations in EV motors by 2020. SR motors—being a magnet-free, cheaper, and lighter alternative—are expected to see faster advancements.
In key xEV markets, PM motors are expected to continue their dominance until 2020, while supply risks and alternative sourcing strategies will drive parallel advancements in AC induction and SRM technologies.
Electric Traction Motor Market: Key Takeaways, Global, 2015
Frost & Sullivan expects permanent magnet (PM) motors to dominate the electric and hybrid vehicle (xEV) motors market. Magnet-less motors to find increased installations in EV motors by 2020.
More than % of motors deployed will be in the ?– kilowatt (kW) range, while 100 kW and above motors are expected to witness higher uptakes, constituting % of total uptake in 2020.
With raw material costs taking about % of motor costs, rare earth magnets account for over % of these material costs. The average cost of a permanent magnet motor (PMM) is $ to $ per kilowatt hour (kWh).
At current rates of utilization, dysprosium—the rare earth (RE) element which is a key ingredient in permanent magnet motors—is expected to fall short of supply by 2019; hence, alternative technologies such as magnet-less synchronous motors are anticipated to gain prominence.
Induction motors are expected to find increased deployments of up to % to % in future xEVs due to their higher RPM deliverability, advancements in efficiency, and lower specific weight.
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
- What are the key traction motor technology options available for OEMs?
- What are the traction motor uptake trends in different regions?
- How will China's monopoly in REE supply impact the market share and pricing of PMMs until 2020?
- What will be the key OEM technology focus areas and consequent supplier strategies to bring down overall xEV costs and improve consumer acceptance?
- How will the motor pricing scenario evolve and what will be the key pricing trends to ensure compliance with US DoE motor pricing targets for 2020?
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