LONDON, February 15, 2017 /PRNewswire/ --
The current gin revival in markets like the UK and Spain conceals a complex and fragmented global picture where overall consumption is still falling, according to the Global Gin Insights joint report from just-drinks and the IWSR featuring the latest full-year data available.
Although sales rose 2.5% to about 52m cases in 2015, global gin consumption is likely to fall over the 2016-21 period, the report says, thanks to continued volume declines in three key markets: the Philippines, the US and India.
However, these markets are mainly focused on the lower price levels, and their losses will be largely offset by gains of more than 1m cases for premium and super-premium gins over the same timescale.
And even in the US, where sales are likely to dip below 9m cases by 2021, consumption falls will disproportionately impact standard and value gins, giving hope to those further up the value chain.
Meanwhile, the category is on fire in Spain, the UK and a number of smaller markets. Spain is predicted to break through the 5m-case barrier by 2021, while the UK will counteract essentially static volumes with sizeable value gains.
The list of smaller but highly promising markets includes travel retail, Germany, France, Portugal and Turkey, while there are also likely to be value gains in Japan, Italy, Canada and South Africa.
"Gin's current boom can be attributed to a number of factors: generational shifts in consumption habits, a new-found quest for 'authenticity', plus a revolution in the way that the spirit - and the gin and tonic especially - is presented," the report notes.
"Gin provides a counterpoint to vodka as growth for the latter slows, displaying an authentic image not enjoyed by most flavoured vodkas, and a distinctive character and flavour lacking in most mainstream vodka brands."
However, the report warns that the "mind-boggling" number of new gin brands launched over the past decade will lead to an inevitable shake-out, with only the strong surviving in an immensely crowded market.
"In order to survive and thrive, new gin brands will have to have one or more of the following: sizeable funds to invest; distinctive branding or flavour profile; a strong local following," the report says.
Global Gin Insights - market forecasts, product innovation and consumer trends, published in September 2016, can be purchased via the just-drinks research store.
just-drinks.com is the online news, insight and research portal for the global drinks industry. Our editorial team includes contributors from around the world, while our commentators comprise experts in their respective fields of beer, bottled water, soft drinks, spirits (both brown and white) and wine. Under the direction of managing editor Olly Wehring, we offer an impartial voice and are driven by our passion for the drinks industry.
About The IWSR
The IWSR is the leading source of data and analysis on the alcoholic beverage market. The IWSR's database, essential to the industry, quantifies the global market of wine, spirits, beer and RTDs by volume and value, and provides insight into short- and long-term trends. IWSR statistics are used by all of the largest multinational wine and spirits companies, as well as many more local companies. The IWSR's unique methodology allows them to get closer to what is actually consumed and better understand how markets work. The IWSR conducts face-to- face interviews with 1,500 companies in 118 countries each year, with further input from 350 companies. The IWSR tracks overall consumption and trends at brand, quality and category level.
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SOURCE just-drinks and The IWSR