The Global Rum Insights report has forecast a compound annual drop of 0.5% between 2016 and 2021, representing a decline of almost 3.7m cases, with rum's top three markets - India, the US and the Philippines - all expected to record falls. The predicted five-year dip follows a decline of 0.8% in 2015 to 141.8m nine-litre cases, with nine of the top 20 markets and four of the top five registering declines.
Between 2010 and 2015, the sector registered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.6%.
The report notes that, while only two of rum's ten largest markets - Cuba and the Dominican Republic - are set to grow over the coming five years, the heaviest declines will be seen in high-volume, low-value markets.
Germany is predicted to be flat to 2021, and only "small declines" are forecast for France, Spain and the UK. On the other hand, India will see a fall of more than 2m cases, while volumes in the Philippines are forecast to decline by 3.8m cases.
Some of rum's other significant markets are expected to enjoy better fortunes, notably Brazil and Venezuela. Meanwhile, Peru, Australia and Jamaica, are all expected to grow strongly over the next few years.
"Taken all together, these trends reflect a growing diversity among rum's global markets," the report states. "While high-volume (but usually low-value) countries such as India and the Philippines are set to decline, a basket of much smaller but more promising destinations are on the increase."
While overall category volumes are on the decline, the report notes that the super- and ultra-premium rum categories are "still expanding at a healthy rate". Nevertheless, in premiumisation terms rum continues to underperform compared to rival spirits categories, such as Scotch whisky and Cognac, with the super- and ultra-premium price segments accounting for less than 0.5% of sales.
Global Rum Insights - market forecasts, product innovation and consumer trends, published in August 2016, can be purchased via the just-drinks research store.
just-drinks.com is the online news, insight and research portal for the global drinks industry. Our editorial team includes contributors from around the world, while our commentators comprise experts in their respective fields of beer, bottled water, soft drinks, spirits (both brown and white) and wine. Under the direction of managing editor Olly Wehring, we offer an impartial voice and are driven by our passion for the drinks industry.
About The IWSR
The IWSR is the leading source of data and analysis on the alcoholic beverage market. The IWSR's database, essential to the industry, quantifies the global market of wine, spirits, beer and RTDs by volume and value, and provides insight into short- and long-term trends. IWSR statistics are used by all of the largest multinational wine and spirits companies, as well as many more local companies. The IWSR's unique methodology allows them to get closer to what is actually consumed and better understand how markets work. The IWSR conducts face-to- face interviews with 1,500 companies in 118 countries each year, with further input from 350 companies. The IWSR tracks overall consumption and trends at brand, quality and category level.
For further information and images please contact James Lawley, Public Relations at Aroq Limited on +44(0)1527-573-606, email email@example.com
SOURCE just-drinks and The IWSR