GOP Challenger Randy Altschuler Leads Bishop in Latest Poll

NEW YORK, Oct. 13, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Republican challenger Randy Altschuler has taken a three-point lead over five-time Democratic Congressman Tim Bishop in the most recent poll in the race for the District 1 Congressional seat on the tip of Long Island. The poll of four hundred likely voters in New York's First Congressional District was conducted by the firm of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc. of Alexandria, VA. The hotly contested race is one of the top ten congressional races where the Republicans have targeted a Democratic opponent. The poll was conducted for Prosperity First Inc., a privately funded congressional PAC. Attached are further details of the poll:

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

TO:

Prosperity First PAC

FROM:

Tony Fabrizio

RE:

Ballot Results -- NY CD 1 Survey

DATE:

October 12, 2012

Based on the findings from our recently completed survey of 400 Likely 2012 Voters (1) in New York's 1st Congressional District:

Altschuler holds lead over Bishop.

"If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) Randy Altschuler, the candidate of the Republican, Conservative and Independence Parties and Tim Bishop, the candidate of the Democratic Party, for whom would you vote? (IF ALSCHULER/BISHOP, ASK: And would you say definitely ALSCHULER/BISHOP or just probably ALSCHULER/BISHOP?)

IF "UNDECIDED" ASK:
If you had to choose today, which candidate are you leaning towards – (ROTATE) Randy Altschuler or Tim Bishop?"



Opinion

Heard


Overall

Of

Of



Both

Both

TOTAL ALTSCHULER

49

54

51

TOTAL BISHOP

46

44

44

Firm undecided (DO NOT READ)

5

1

5

Overall, Altschuler holds a slight 3-point lead over Bishop. Among the 91% of voters who have heard of both candidates, Altschuler widens his lead to 7 points. Most problematic for Bishop is that among the 71% of voters who have a firm opinion of both candidates, Altschuler's lead widens further to 10 points putting him well over 50%.

(1) Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates conducted an 400 sample statewide survey of likely 2012 voters in NY CD 1 between October 10 & 11 that included both landline and cell phones. Professionally trained interviewers conducted the interviewing and the sample frame was stratified to reflect actual turnout in Presidential elections. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence interval.

Key Survey Demographics:

Political Party:








Oct








11


Republican






39


Democrat






30


Independence






5


Conservative






4


Working Families






-


Not registered or affiliated with any political party

18


Other (DO NOT READ)





1


DK/Refused (DO NOT READ)



3









Age:



Oct

11





18-34

15





35-44

12





45-54

20





55-64

25





65+

25





Refused (DO NOT READ)

3




Gender:



Oct

 11




TOTAL MALE





48




TOTAL FEMALE





52




Female, working outside the home


26




Female, homemaker





20




Female/Refused (DO NOT READ)


5



Area/Township:



 Oct
11







Smithtown

14







Brookhaven

61







East End Towns

25







Riverhead

5







Islip

5







Southold

4







East Hampton

3







Southampton

8






 

 

 

SOURCE Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc.




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