Growth of the Mexican Breast Cancer Market will Be Driven by an Expanding Patient Population that will Spur the Number of Incident Cases by 3.4 Percent Annually Through 2021 Despite Anticipated Loss of Sales Due to Generic Erosion, the Launch of Several Premium-Priced Branded Agents Will Stimulate Continued Market Growth in Mexico
BURLINGTON, Mass., Feb. 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that an expanding patient population will largely contribute to the growth of the market for treating breast cancer in Mexico. The number of incident cases of breast cancer will increase by nearly 40 percent between 2011 and 2021, mainly due to increases in population size and aging.
According to the Emerging Markets report entitled Breast Cancer in Mexico, growth will also be determined by the launches of several novel branded therapies by 2016, including Novartis's Afinitor, Eisai's Halaven, Roche's Perjeta and Kadcyla. Some of these agents will become the highest-priced drugs available for the treatment of CaB in Mexico, all of them contributing 24 percent to the total market in 2016. Notably, Afinitor, representing a first-in-class mTOR inhibitor, was approved in Mexico in October 2012 for use in hormone-responsive HER2-negative patients after progression on aromatase inhibitors, and is expected to account for over 5 percent of Mexico's total breast cancer market. Additionally, following positive Phase III efficacy and safety data, Kadcyla received priority review from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in December 2012 to target advanced, HER2-positive breast cancer previously treated with trastuzumab and a taxane. Currently, Kadcyla has its PDUFA date set for late February 2013, which supports a potential launch in Mexico in 2014.
"The anticipated launches of these new therapies will be a significant driver in the Mexican market," said Decision Resources Analyst Natalia Reoutova, M.A., M.Sc. "Although several branded drugs should lose patent protection over the forecast period, the uptake of novel, high-value agents will offset market decline."
According to report findings, several branded agents, some of which have already faced generic erosion in major markets, will likely lose patent protection in Mexico by 2016. Roche's Xeloda, Eli Lilly's Gemzar, Sanofi's Taxotere and Janssen's Doxil are anticipated to suffer the greatest market share loss. The expiry of patent extension for the widely used antitubulin Taxotere will have the most constraining effect on the Mexican breast cancer market, with a forecasted $15 million decline in sales.
The new report features extensive primary research with Mexican oncologists as well as a market outlook by compound and class through 2016 and breast cancer epidemiology through 2021.
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