Technology Trends that will reach adoption in 5 years:
1. Rebooting Computing (includes quantum computing)
The end of Moore's law has resulted in the end of the ITRS (International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors) and its transformation into IRDS (International Roadmap for Devices and Systems), focusing on new technologies, such as quantum computing, neuromorphic, adiabatic, and many others.
2. Human Brain Interface
There are many types of interfaces developed, but the one that can be most impactful is human brain interface that can drive and control machines directly. This will be enabled by the rebooting computing technologies above but will also require separate innovation to connect the human brain to hardware.
3. Capabilities – Hardware protection
Protecting data at rest and flight requires more sophisticated security technologies based on more robust hardware protection, such as capabilities. Capabilities had been popular in the 1960s but were abandoned in favor of paging which was sufficient when physical memory was small. Rapid advances in memory, interconnects, and processors, as well as requirements of big data applications, open up new opportunities for capabilities.
4. The Year of Exascale
The scientific community is starting to converge on 2022 being the year where they can expect the first wave of Exascale systems to be deployed. An Exascale machine would almost double the performance of all of 2016's top 500 supercomputers put together, enabling breakthroughs in scientific fields such as weather, genomics, life sciences, energy, and manufacturing.
5. NVM Reaches Maturity
There are indicators that the long-predicted adoption of NVM is coming and by 2022, we'll be at least in the second or third generation of true nonvolatile memory devices that will change the entire memory-storage hierarchy, and associated software stack, across the IT industry.
6. Silicon Photonics Becomes a Reality
While bridging technologies (such as VCSEL-based photonics) may be sufficient to address the needs for the next five years, we see 2022 as the pivot point where highly integrated silicon photonics components will be necessary to meet the combined cost, energy, and performance requirements of Exascale systems.
7. Smart NICs
Networking equipment, such as the kind seeing explosive growth in data centers, is becoming more commoditized and open. Ever more sophisticated chips in network interface cards (NICs) allow more offloading of traditional networking tasks from the CPU to the NIC, including encryption, compression, package management, etc. We've seen this trend before with graphics cards: commodity specialized hardware mated with good library support enabled an explosion of applications and libraries in domains far from graphics, earning the nickname "GPGPU." Similarly, GPNICs may allow newly accelerated software to take advantage of the unique hardware properties of NICs, both within classical network applications, such as key-value stores, and in new domains, such as text processing.
8. Power Conservative Multicores
Integrated processor cores on a chip will go over hundreds and thousands for top 500 and green 500 HPC machines. With more processors on a chip, memory architectures and data transfer will become key technologies in hardware. In software, a parallelizing compiler that allows users to employ the many cores efficiently and easily will reduce rapidly increasing software development costs. Automatic power reduction with the collaboration of the architecture and compiler will become crucial to apply clock or power gating or frequency and voltage lowering to idle processor cores.
Contributors to these predictions include: Paolo Faraboschi, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Fellow; Eitan Frachtenberg, Data Scientist; Hironori Kasahara, IEEE Computer Society President-Elect; Phil Laplante, Professor, Penn State University; Dejan Milojicic, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Distinguished Technologist, and IEEE Computer Society Past President; and John Walz, IEEE Computer Society Past President.
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SOURCE IEEE Computer Society