Institute for Supply Management™ Makes Annual Adjustments to Seasonal Factors for ISM Manufacturing PMI® and Diffusion Indexes and ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI® and Diffusion Indexes

 

TEMPE, Ariz., Jan. 29, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Institute for Supply Management recently announced the completion of its annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used in the monthly Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Report On Business® and the monthly Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®. Economists and managers who track these indexes will note that changes are effective with the January 2014 ISM Manufacturing Report On Business®, which is scheduled to be released on February 3, 2014, and the January 2014 ISM Non-Manufacturing Report On Business®, which will be released on February 5, 2014.

Seasonal adjustment factors are used to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-movable holidays. It is standard practice to project the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes one year ahead (2014).

As in previous years, the X12-ARIMA program was used to develop the revisions to the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes for 2010 through 2013, as well as the 2014 projected seasonal factors. The 2014 seasonal factors will be recomputed when the actual data are known in early 2015. Projected seasonal factors for 2014 and revised seasonally adjusted indexes are shown below.

2014 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Manufacturing Indexes


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Orders

Production

Employment

Supplier Deliveries


 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

2014

1.054

0.985

0.976

1.012

Feb

2014

1.092

1.121

1.022

0.991

Mar

2014

1.107

1.092

1.037

1.027

Apr

2014

1.135

1.141

1.079

1.029

May

2014

1.064

1.033

1.061

1.015

Jun

2014

0.976

0.992

1.033

1.012

Jul

2014

0.907

0.947

0.980

1.026

Aug

2014

0.930

0.953

0.972

1.002

Sep

2014

0.959

0.937

0.970

1.006

Oct

2014

0.912

0.933

0.964

0.970

Nov

2014

0.932

0.955

0.957

0.951

Dec

2014

0.934

0.910

0.951

0.961

To compute the PMI®:

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place). Note: As of January 2012, the ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted.

3) Add all five index numbers together and divide by five.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.

2014 Seasonal Adjustment Factors for ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Business Activity

New Orders

Employment

Prices


 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

2014

0.942

0.972

0.940

1.033

Feb

2014

1.017

1.052

1.021

1.089

Mar

2014

1.087

1.076

1.035

1.063

Apr

2014

1.051

1.039

1.073

1.044

May

2014

1.031

1.042

1.078

0.994

Jun

2014

1.008

0.989

1.085

0.996

Jul

2014

0.985

0.948

1.036

0.985

Aug

2014

0.961

0.948

0.980

0.971

Sep

2014

0.986

1.009

0.923

0.969

Oct

2014

0.967

0.956

0.931

0.970

Nov

2014

0.971

1.009

0.917

0.937

Dec

2014

0.996

0.960

0.982

0.950

To compute the NMI®:

1) Calculate the unadjusted diffusion index for Business Activity, New Orders and Employment to two decimal places (percent higher or up plus one half of the percent same or unchanged). For Supplier Deliveries, it will be percent slower plus one half of the percent same or unchanged.

2) Divide each unadjusted diffusion index by its seasonal factor (round to one decimal place).

3) Add all four index numbers together and divide by four.

To compute other indexes, follow steps #1 and #2 above for each indicator.


 

Revised Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2010-2013


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PMI®

New Orders

Production

Employment

Supplier Deliveries


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

2010

57.2

62.9

64.7

53.6

59.0

Feb

2010

55.8

57.1

58.4

54.6

59.8

Mar

2010

58.8

61.4

60.7

54.0

61.3

Apr

2010

58.1

62.4

63.0

55.6

58.9

May

2010

58.3

63.1

64.6

57.1

60.8

Jun

2010

56.4

60.0

62.2

55.9

57.8

Jul

2010

56.4

57.0

57.7

59.5

58.9

Aug

2010

58.0

56.9

60.7

62.1

57.1

Sep

2010

56.3

53.5

60.2

57.9

54.0

Oct

2010

57.7

59.5

63.5

59.5

52.9

Nov

2010

57.6

57.9

56.0

60.5

59.5

Dec

2010

57.5

59.8

62.5

58.2

57.0


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

2011

59.0

62.5

62.9

60.6

57.2

Feb

2011

59.3

61.9

63.5

61.5

59.2

Mar

2011

59.1

61.9

63.8

60.7

59.9

Apr

2011

58.9

60.4

60.7

59.7

59.2

May

2011

53.7

52.4

54.4

57.2

55.9

Jun

2011

56.6

55.7

57.3

60.3

56.4

Jul

2011

52.9

54.9

54.3

56.1

51.4

Aug

2011

53.0

52.1

51.7

54.9

52.0

Sep

2011

52.8

51.6

53.7

54.8

51.9

Oct

2011

51.8

52.4

52.8

55.1

52.0

Nov

2011

52.1

55.2

54.4

53.0

51.3

Dec

2011

53.1

55.4

59.9

55.0

49.9


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PMI®

New Orders

Production

Employment

Supplier Deliveries


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

2012

52.8

55.2

54.3

54.0

50.8

Feb

2012

52.4

55.2

55.5

53.6

48.4

Mar

2012

53.0

55.5

56.5

54.6

48.6

Apr

2012

53.7

55.8

59.2

56.5

48.7

May

2012

53.2

57.1

56.6

56.0

50.2

Jun

2012

51.0

51.3

53.8

55.8

50.0

Jul

2012

50.6

50.3

50.6

53.3

49.6

Aug

2012

51.1

49.6

49.5

52.9

50.3

Sep

2012

52.2

53.5

51.9

54.3

50.6

Oct

2012

51.2

51.8

51.9

53.1

49.4

Nov

2012

49.5

51.4

52.2

48.8

50.2

Dec

2012

50.4

50.1

53.1

52.7

52.9


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

2013

52.3

50.8

53.8

53.8

51.9

Feb

2013

53.1

55.7

54.5

52.2

51.5

Mar

2013

51.5

51.7

53.9

52.1

50.4

Apr

2013

50.0

49.7

52.1

50.5

51.1

May

2013

50.0

49.6

52.5

49.0

49.7

Jun

2013

52.5

55.7

55.7

50.0

50.4

Jul

2013

54.9

59.1

60.8

55.5

52.0

Aug

2013

56.3

63.6

63.0

55.0

52.4

Sep

2013

56.0

61.3

61.2

54.8

52.7

Oct

2013

56.6

61.3

60.8

54.3

54.1

Nov

2013

57.0

63.4

62.4

55.4

53.3

Dec

2013

56.5

64.4

61.7

55.8

53.7

The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI® of 43.2 percent. A PMI® over 43.2 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI® below 43.2 percent indicates the overall economy is declining. The ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index is no longer seasonally adjusted as of January 2012.


Revised Non-Manufacturing Seasonally Adjusted Indexes 2010-2013


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NMI®

Business Activity

New Orders

Employment

Prices

 

Jan

2010

49.6

51.5

51.4

44.8

59.5

Feb

2010

50.8

53.0

50.8

46.0

58.7

Mar

2010

53.2

57.7

58.3

47.4

60.7

Apr

2010

55.6

59.8

59.7

49.3

64.0

May

2010

55.5

61.3

58.0

49.6

60.0

Jun

2010

54.6

59.4

57.6

48.5

56.8

Jul

2010

54.8

57.4

58.9

50.7

56.0

Aug

2010

52.7

55.8

55.1

48.9

58.3

Sep

2010

53.6

53.3

54.7

51.5

60.3

Oct

2010

55.3

59.7

58.4

52.1

69.7

Nov

2010

56.7

59.1

58.4

56.6

65.4

Dec

2010

57.0

62.2

62.0

52.2

69.2


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NMI®

Business Activity

New Orders

Employment

Prices


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

2011

57.1

61.6

61.2

52.1

69.8

Feb

2011

56.9

63.3

58.8

53.6

68.9

Mar

2011

55.5

58.2

59.3

52.9

70.7

Apr

2011

55.3

56.9

57.5

53.6

71.4

May

2011

55.0

55.0

56.4

54.4

70.0

Jun

2011

54.2

55.7

56.1

52.9

63.7

Jul

2011

53.8

56.6

54.6

53.3

62.0

Aug

2011

54.1

56.5

55.0

51.9

60.9

Sep

2011

52.7

56.8

55.2

49.4

61.5

Oct

2011

52.9

53.9

53.5

52.3

58.1

Nov

2011

53.2

56.1

53.5

53.1

62.9

Dec

2011

52.6

55.6

54.3

49.0

61.3


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

2012

55.6

58.7

57.8

54.9

61.2

Feb

2012

54.9

59.9

57.0

53.2

63.9

Mar

2012

55.1

58.5

57.1

55.2

65.0

Apr

2012

54.5

56.0

55.8

54.5

56.9

May

2012

54.4

56.4

56.1

51.9

53.8

Jun

2012

53.3

53.6

55.9

52.5

51.0

Jul

2012

52.9

56.2

55.6

50.3

56.5

Aug

2012

53.8

55.3

55.0

53.3

62.1

Sep

2012

55.3

60.2

56.3

53.2

66.1

Oct

2012

54.5

56.1

55.7

54.7

61.4

Nov

2012

55.1

60.9

57.3

53.3

57.5

Dec

2012

55.7

60.0

59.1

55.2

55.7


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

2013

54.9

56.4

55.0

55.6

57.1

Feb

2013

54.8

56.3

56.0

55.5

57.4

Mar

2013

54.5

56.6

55.2

53.2

56.4

Apr

2013

53.8

55.9

55.7

52.6

53.0

May

2013

54.0

57.0

56.6

50.3

54.4

Jun

2013

53.4

53.3

54.0

54.9

56.5

Jul

2013

55.9

59.5

57.7

53.9

58.3

Aug

2013

57.9

61.0

59.7

56.3

53.6

Sep

2013

54.5

55.8

58.1

54.1

56.9

Oct

2013

55.1

58.9

56.4

56.0

56.2

Nov

2013

54.1

55.3

55.7

54.5

52.7

Dec

2013

53.0

54.3

50.4

55.6

54.7

The ISM Report On Business® is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic and business leaders for its timely, accurate information. The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by Institute for Supply Management, the first supply institute in the world. Each month, both reports are compiled from responses to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives across the country and reflects change, if any, in the current month compared to previous months. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is the first supply management institute in the world. Founded in 1915, ISM's mission is to enhance the value and performance of procurement and supply chain management practitioners and their organizations worldwide. By executing and extending its mission through education, research, standards of excellence and information dissemination — including the renowned monthly ISM Report On Business® — ISM maintains a strong global influence among individuals and organizations.

(Logo:  http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20121101/LA02871LOGO)

Contact:

Kristina Cahill


 

ISM, ROB Media Relations


 

Report On Business® Analyst


 

Tempe, Arizona


 

(800) 888-6276, ext. 3015


 

kcahill@ism.ws

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management




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