Kearney Supply Chain Navigator predicts 2.3 to 4 percent rise in supply chain costs above baseline inflation, contrary to traditional indicators

Kearney's tool has been 95+ percent accurate predicting performance over 10 successive quarters

• Tariff rates, critical minerals, geopolitical risk, and elevated global inventory are exerting sustained pressure across industries and regions.
• Cost pressure is easing on commodity prices, container rates, and road freight.
• US is in a "moderate inflationary regime," while China remains producer-price deflationary.
• Performance will depend on early signal recognition and connected decision-making.

NEW YORK, Feb. 26, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Global strategy and management consulting firm Kearney's internal think tank, Kearney Foresight|Supply Chain Institute, today releases its latest semiannual Supply Chain Navigator, 2026 H1 briefing: Cost pressures are structural as supply chains stabilize. The Supply Chain Navigator report forecasts changing supply chain costs across industries, analyzing the operational, macroeconomic and geopolitical forces that affect company performance. Since its inception 10 quarters ago, it has had an accuracy rate of more than 95 percent. The latest edition focuses on the implications of structural forces in trade policy, critical minerals constraints, geopolitical friction, and elevated inventory levels.

"As supply chain becomes both more volatile and more critical to enterprise performance, the key message from our research is that companies must recognize cost pressures early, and upstream," notes Kearney partner and report co-author Rupal Deshmukh. "Cost pressure shows up before the P&L, which then must be translated to coordinated capability and decisions that are connected across planning, sourcing, and operations—the entire supply value chain."

The report identifies and measures four interconnected forces beyond the conventional drivers of supply chain costs that are exerting sustained pressure across industries and regions, contributing to the persistence of elevated supply chain costs beyond periods of disruption:

• Applied tariff rates, which have risen 30 percent on average
• Critical minerals exposure by industry: global exports have decreased by one-third year over year
• Geopolitical risk, up 34 percent in the past year
• Global inventory dynamics, levels rising 14 percent in the past year

Acknowledging that global supply chains are now operating under an elevated cost structure due to these factors, the report lays out three patterns shaping operations performance for companies that are successfully navigating sustained pressure:

• Timing. Pressure is recognized earlier than financial results.
• Alignment. Decisions reinforce each other across the value chain.
• Technology and talent. These determine how well timing is converted to action.

"Despite the structural pressures our research has identified, seven out of 10 CEOs are expecting revenue growth of 10 percent or more this year," commented Kearney partner, global chair in the strategic operations and performance practice, and study co-author Suketu Gandhi. "But to achieve this level of success, talent is a critical factor. Performance will depend on whether leaders and teams have the skills to interpret signals, challenge assumptions, and act across functions with discipline. While technology promises to expand visibility and speed, outcomes will ultimately depend on how effectively human judgment and coordination are applied." He added, "Supply chains are where superior performance is gained or lost. While businesses are adapting well, adaptation itself becomes another risk. Today's workarounds can quickly become tomorrow's constraints. Companies need to stage investments, regionalize supply chains, and prioritize flexibility."

For more information on the report, please visit Supply Chain Navigator.

About the Supply Chain Navigator
Kearney's Supply Chain Navigator is a quarterly report and analytical tool created by the Kearney Foresight | Supply Chain Institute that analyzes global supply chain indicators to project cost outlooks. It helps leaders navigate structural volatility by forecasting trends in inventory, manufacturing, and transportation, aiding in strategic planning amid high-risk environments. The current report outlines the overall risk landscape and provides strategies for leaders navigating supply chain decisions in the first half of 2026. For more on the Navigator, please visit here.

About Kearney
For 100 years, Kearney has been a leading management consulting firm and trusted partner to three-quarters of the Fortune Global 500 and governments around the world. With a presence across more than 40 countries, our people make us who we are. We work impact first, tackling your toughest challenges with original thinking and a commitment to making change happen together. By your side, we deliver—value, results, impact. To learn more about Kearney, please visit https://www.kearney.com/.

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SOURCE Kearney