Kimball Political Consulting poll: Scott Brown 49, Elizabeth Warren 47
BOSTON, Nov. 2, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Senator Scott Brown holds a 2 point advantage of Elizabeth Warren, according to a new Kimball Political Consulting poll. The survey stands in contrast to this week's Suffolk University poll showing Warren holding a 7 point lead but mirrors the results of a Boston Globe poll from last weekend.
Brown captures 49% of the vote with Warren at 47% of "likely" voters. Kimball has done a series of tracking polls on this race since August with Warren taking her first lead (48% to 46%) in mid-October.
The Pollster, Spencer Kimball, believes the sleeper effect, which is when voters forget the messenger and remember the message, is what has turned things around for Brown. The theory suggests that Brown's blistering attacks on Warren's heritage and her legal representation took time to create the intended effect but voters may now be showing doubt about the Democrat nominee. Warren's unfavorable opinion has risen to 45%.
In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 4 to 1 it appears Brown's strategy to use high profile Democrat endorsements has worked, with Brown taking 21% of the Democrat vote. Brown is also able to capture 61% of the Independent vote to Warren's 34%.
Warren's communication goals throughout the campaign were to make women issues including abortion and equal pay prominent pieces of her campaign along with the cost of education. These issues did not seem to resonate, as less than 11% of voters listed any of these three as their top issue.
President Obama holds a 13 point lead (54% to 41%) and medical marijuana is supported by 54% of voters with 37% opposing the new law.
The statewide survey of 761 Massachusetts likely voters was conducted on October 31 and November 1, using automated telephone interview. The margin of error is +/- 3.48 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Frequencies and full cross-tabulation data are available at www.kimballpc.com website.
SOURCE Kimball Political Consulting