Manhattan Sales Inventory Falls to Historic Low in November

Manhattan sales inventory drops 14.3 percent month-over-month to the lowest level on record, according to the November 2015 StreetEasy Market Reports

30 Dec, 2015, 05:00 ET from StreetEasy

NEW YORK, Dec. 30, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --

Key facts – November 2015:

  • Manhattan's sales inventory fell 14.3 percent from October to 7,293 units, the lowest level on StreetEasy record.
  • Sales inventory in the Upper Manhattan submarket declined the most across Manhattan and Brooklyn, falling 33.4 percent from last year's level.
  • Newly-listed inventory declined 42.8 percent in Manhattan and 40.2 percent in Brooklyn from October, as sellers delay listing properties until the busier spring selling season.
  • Amid tight inventory, Manhattan's median resale price rose 6.6 percent from last year to $992,111, according to the StreetEasy Price Index. Brooklyn's median resale price rose 11.6 percent from last year to $552,324.

Manhattan and Brooklyn inventory fell sharply in November in an anticipated and highly seasonal swing in the New York City sales market. However, Manhattan sales inventory fell farther than usual to a historic low in November, dropping 14.3 percent from October and 13.3 percent below last year's level to 7,293 units, the lowest level on StreetEasy record, according to the November 2015 StreetEasy® Market Reportsi.

The Upper Manhattan submarket saw the steepest annual loss of sales inventory across Manhattan and Brooklyn, falling 33.4 percent compared to last year. The Upper East Side and Upper West Side also experienced double-digit annual inventory decreases, falling 16 percent and 13.3 percent from last November, respectively. In Brooklyn, sales inventory fell 3.2 percent from last year, led by year-over-year losses in the South Brooklyn submarket (6.6 percent) and East Brooklyn (4.5 percent). The loss in inventory was isolated to co-op units, which saw a precipitous 23.4 percent inventory decline from last year.

Newly-listed inventory was particularly sparse in November, as many sellers wait out the winter months to list their home in the spring. In Manhattan, the number of newly listed units for sale fell 42.8 percent between October and November, which was slightly more than in recent years; Manhattan's five-year historical average monthly decline in November is 33.5 percent. In Brooklyn, the number of newly listed units was 40.2 percent below last year's level.

"Lower inventory is to be expected at this time of year, but the magnitude of inventory loss in Manhattan last month was greater than anticipated," said StreetEasy data scientist Alan Lightfeldt. "Buyers will be chasing after fewer available units this winter, ensuring the markets will remain competitive and the discounts buyers were hoping for in this traditionally slower season might not happen. But, price growth in the New Year is expected to be a fraction of what we saw in 2015, offering some relief on the horizon."

Amid tight inventory, sale prices continued to climb in November. According to the StreetEasy Price Indexii, the median resale price in Manhattan rose 6.6 percent from last year to $992,111, the strongest annual growth since January 2015. The median resale price grew the fastest in the Upper Manhattan submarket (19 percent), followed by Upper West Side (9.5 percent) and Downtown (6.1 percent).

Brooklyn's median resale price in November rose 11.6 percent from last year to $552,324, according to StreetEasy's Brooklyn Price Index. The strongest annual price growth was in the East Brooklyn submarket (18.1 percent), followed by Prospect Park (15.5 percent) and Northwest Brooklyn (13.6 percent).

According to the StreetEasy Rent Indicesiii, Manhattan median rent in November grew by 5.4 percent from last year to $3,137. Rent growth in Brooklyn was slower by comparison, rising 2.7 percent from last year to a median of $2,644. Annual rent growth in the Prospect Park submarket led the borough in November, rising 2.7 percent to $2,644.

Looking ahead to December, resale prices in Manhattan are expected to increase by 0.5 percent to $997,100 over the next month, according to the StreetEasy Manhattan Price Forecast. In Brooklyn, prices are expected to increase 1.3 percent to $559,232 over the next month, according to the StreetEasy Brooklyn Price Forecastiv.  

Submarket Name

Nov. 2015

StreetEasy

Price Indexi

Annual Change

Nov. 2015 Sales

 Inventory

Annual Change

Nov. 2015

StreetEasy

Rent Indexii

Annual Change

Manhattan

$992,111

6.6%

7,293

-13.3%

$3,137

5.4%

Downtown

$1,232,847

6.1%

2,237

-11.7%

$3,648

5.0%

Midtown

$851,674

3.3%

1,796

-5.1%

$3,329

5.0%

Upper West Side

$1,098,836

9.5%

1,122

-13.3%

$3,156

5.4%

Upper East Side

$976,250

4.6%

1,601

-16.0%

$2,747

6.4%

Upper Manhattan

$654,139

19.0%

509

-33.4%

$2,336

7.6%

Brooklyn

$552,324

11.6%

3,446

3.2%

$2,644

2.7%

North Brooklyn

$897,348

6.4%

298

17.8%

$3,163

4.0%

Northwest Brooklyn

$851,037

13.6%

627

0.2%

$3,019

3.6%

Prospect Park

$846,734

15.5%

370

1.4%

$2,844

4.2%

South Brooklyn

$399,448

11.4%

1,749

-6.6%

$1,699

3.5%

East Brooklyn

463,074

18.1%

384

-4.5%

$2,563

3.3%

The complete StreetEasy Market Reports with additional analysis and neighborhood data for Manhattan and Brooklyn can be viewed at streeteasy.com/blog/market-reports.

About StreetEasy:
StreetEasy is New York City's leading local real estate marketplace on mobile and the Web, providing accurate and comprehensive for-sale and for-rent listings from hundreds of real estate brokerages throughout New York City and the major NYC metropolitan area. StreetEasy adds layers of proprietary data and useful search tools to help home shoppers and real estate professionals navigate the complex real estate markets within the five boroughs of New York City, as well as Northern New Jersey and the Hamptons.

Launched in 2006, StreetEasy is based in Manhattan's Flatiron neighborhood. StreetEasy is owned and operated by Zillow Group (NASDAQ: Z).

StreetEasy is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.

i The StreetEasy Market Reports are a monthly overview of the Manhattan and Brooklyn sales and rental markets. Every three months, a quarterly analysis is published. The report data is aggregated from public recorded sales and listings data from real estate brokerages that provide comprehensive coverage of Manhattan and Brooklyn, with most metrics dating back to 1995 in Manhattan and 2004 in Brooklyn. The reports are compiled by the StreetEasy Research team. StreetEasy tracks data for all five boroughs within New York City, but currently only produces reports for Manhattan and Brooklyn. For more information, visit http://streeteasy.com/blog/market-reports/.
ii The StreetEasy Price Indices, or the Manhattan Price Index and Brooklyn Price Index, are monthly indices that track changes in resale prices of condo, co-op, and townhouse units. Each index uses a repeat-sales method of comparing the sales prices of the same properties since January 1995 in Manhattan and January 2004 in Brooklyn. Given this methodology, each Index accurately captures the change in home prices by controlling for the varying composition of homes sold in a given month. Data on sales of homes is sourced from the New York City Department of Finance. Full methodology here: http://streeteasy.com/blog/methodology-streeteasy-price-indices/ 
iii The StreetEasy Rent Indices, or the Manhattan Rent Index and the Brooklyn Rent Index, are monthly indices that track changes in median rents of condo, co-op and townhouse units. Each index uses a repeat-sales methodology using rental listings on StreetEasy, comparing the rent price of the same properties across several years. Full methodology here: http://streeteasy.com/blog/methodology-streeteasy-rent-indices/ 
iv The Manhattan Price Forecast and the Brooklyn Price Forecast predict the change in resale prices one month out from the current reported period. Each forecast incorporates the Price Index for each borough, StreetEasy's comprehensive database of listing prices and days on market - two leading indicators to future resale prices to accurately forecast what next month's resale prices will be before the release of publicly recorded sales data. Full methodology here: http://streeteasy.com/blog/methodology-streeteasy-price-indices-2/

 

SOURCE StreetEasy



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