Media Analysis Shows America Isn't Ready to Dump Trump

Election 2016 has been a bumpy, Trumpy ride

Feb 29, 2016, 19:17 ET from LexisNexis

DAYTON, Ohio, Feb. 29, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Media analysis by LexisNexis® Newsdesk points to what many Americans likely already know: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will probably secure their respective party's nomination for President of the United States. As for Marco Rubio's impassioned debate performance... well, despite a bump in Rubio's media coverage, his attack was probably a little too late.

Highlights of analysis include the following (download these charts on Dropbox):

  • Trump dominated 50 percent of mainstream media coverage in the last 30 days.
  • In the last 24 hours, Trump's lead has fallen to 32 percent of share of media voice compared to Rubio's 16 percent and Cruz's 13 percent.
  • In Vermont and Colorado, Sanders leads share of voice with 31 and 29 percent, followed by Clinton with 25 and 25 percent, and Trump with 19 and 24 percent.
  • In Texas, Clinton and Cruz have just 0.6 percent share of voice separating them from being the second-most talked about candidate in the state.
  • Rubio has his greatest share of media coverage in Virginia, with 22 percent.

As Super Tuesday approaches, Trump is leading in the polls, in the media and in social conversation. Analysis of media coverage in all 50 states shows Trump dominates 50 percent of mainstream print, broadcast and online media coverage from the past 30 days.

Trump has lost ground to Rubio; media coverage over the last 24 hours shows Trump with 32 percent of share of media voice vs. Rubio's 16 percent. Ted Cruz, on the other hand, remains the only other viable Republican candidate – according to media coverage, anyway – with approximately 13 percent share of coverage in the last 24 hours.

In Vermont and Colorado, Democrat Bernie Sanders leads with 31 and 29 of coverage, followed by Hillary Clinton with 25 and 25 percent and Trump with a comparatively measly 19 and 24 percent, respectively. This isn't surprising in a historically blue state like Vermont, but it's an indication of how Colorado may lean in November.

And in key battleground states media coverage is anyone's game:

  • In Texas, Clinton and Cruz are in a tight race for second place in media coverage, with just 0.6 percent separating them from being the second-most talked about candidate in the state.
  • In Colorado, Sanders, Clinton and Trump appear to be the only candidates up for consideration; none of the other candidates currently rank in double-digit share of media coverage.
  • In Virginia, Rubio is seeing his greatest share of media coverage, with 22 percent. Still, he trails Trump by 7 percent. Clinton is presently ranked third in media coverage in the state.

In an election season in which the stakes seem higher than ever and anything seems possible, who knows what's ahead in this election cycle? One thing is certain, however: It's going to be a bumpy, Trumpy ride.

For a full breakdown of media coverage from the LexisNexis report, visit the LexisNexis Biz Blog or connect on Twitter @LexisNexisBiz. Data and information powered by LexisNexis Newsdesk.

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