"In our fourth quarter GDP forecast, we expect domestic sales to strengthen and business investment in equipment to rebound, given a recent improving trend in core durable goods orders. However, we don't anticipate a substantial turnaround going forward given the uncertainty of government policy facing businesses," said Duncan. "Consumer spending is also likely to be a key growth driver, although we expect consumers will remain cautious given recent weakening in real disposable income. We also expect that residential investment will no longer drag on GDP as single-family construction spending has showed signs of stabilizing. However, the lack of homes for sale, particularly at the lower end of the market, continues to be a significant challenge for housing. Demand from first-time buyers has increased with household formation and is outpacing supply, leading to significant price increases and affordability challenges for entry-level buyers. Home purchase affordability will be constrained further if the recent pickup in mortgage rates persists, which would present a downside risk to our forecast of housing and mortgage activity."
Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at www.fanniemae.com to read the full November 2016 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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SOURCE Fannie Mae