October Marks Second Straight Month of Falling U.S. Home Values
First Time in Two Years Home Values Fall Two Months in a Row, According to Zillow
- Home values rise 5.2 percent year-over-year in October; annual appreciation expected to slow to 2.7 percent by Oct. 2014.
- Half of metros analyzed showed depreciation from September to October.
SEATTLE, Nov. 26, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- National home values fell for the second month in a row in October, to a Zillow® Home Value Indexi of $162,800, the first consecutive monthly declines since October 2011, according to the October Zillow Real Estate Market Reportsii. Home values nationwide rose 5.2 percent year-over-year, a much slower pace than annual appreciation rates in the seven percent range experienced over the summer, further proof that the market has begun to cool off after months of unsustainable appreciation rates.
Half of the 388 metros covered experienced monthly home value depreciation in October from September. Among the 30 largest metro areas covered by Zillow, 10 exhibited monthly depreciation in October, and two more were flat.
For the 12-month period from October 2013 to October 2014, national home values are expected to rise just 2.7 percent, roughly half the current pace, according to the Zillow Home Value Forecastiii. Seven of the top 30 metros covered by Zillow are expected to see home values fall over the next year, with the biggest declines in St. Louis (-1.5 percent), Philadelphia (-0.9 percent) and New York (-0.7 percent).
"The months-long period of annual home value appreciation rates in the 6 and 7 percent range was great while it lasted, but we knew it would not continue indefinitely. The slowdown we've seen these past few months was expected, and is largely welcome news for a market still struggling to find its natural balance," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "The conditions that led to the robust appreciation experienced earlier this year, including historically low mortgage interest rates, high affordability, low inventory and high demand, are waning. In their place, we're beginning to see more inventory and rising mortgage rates, which will lead to further normalization in the market going forward."
Despite falling monthly appreciation, home values in most areas continue to grow year-over-year. All 30 of the largest metro areas experienced annual gains in September, with the largest coming in Las Vegas (33.2 percent); Riverside, Calif. (30.4 percent); and Sacramento, Calif. (30.4 percent).
National rents rose in October from September, up 0.2 percent to a Zillow Rent Indexiv of $1,300. Year-over-year, national rents were up 2.3 percent in October.
The number of completed foreclosures in October fell to 5.44 homes foreclosed out of every 10,000 homes nationwide, down from 5.5 homes in September. Foreclosure re-sales represented 8.7 percent of homes sold in the U.S. in October, up 0.5 percentage points from September but down 2.1 percentage points from October 2012.
| Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) |
Zillow Rent Index (ZRI) |
|||||
| Metropolitan Areas |
October 2013 ZHVI |
Month-Month % Change |
Year-Year % Change |
October 2013 ZRI |
Month-Month % Change |
Year-Year % Change |
| United States |
$162,800 |
-0.1% |
5.2% |
$1,300 |
0.2% |
2.3% |
| New York, NY |
$354,100 |
0.0% |
3.4% |
$2,305 |
-0.3% |
7.1% |
| Los Angeles, CA |
$487,600 |
1.2% |
20.1% |
$2,332 |
0.1% |
2.5% |
| Chicago, IL |
$171,600 |
-0.2% |
6.5% |
$1,571 |
0.9% |
3.8% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX |
$142,900 |
-0.7% |
10.3% |
$1,359 |
0.5% |
3.3% |
| Philadelphia, PA |
$188,700 |
-0.6% |
1.8% |
$1,500 |
-0.2% |
1.4% |
| Washington, DC |
$343,500 |
0.1% |
8.1% |
$2,090 |
-0.1% |
1.7% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL |
$175,000 |
1.2% |
16.9% |
$1,676 |
0.4% |
5.5% |
| Atlanta, GA |
$128,500 |
0.2% |
14.3% |
$1,157 |
0.8% |
3.0% |
| Boston, MA |
$343,800 |
0.5% |
9.2% |
$2,014 |
0.8% |
3.3% |
| San Francisco, CA |
$636,900 |
1.0% |
24.1% |
$2,580 |
0.5% |
3.8% |
| Detroit, MI |
$98,300 |
0.9% |
22.7% |
$1,045 |
-0.3% |
1.8% |
| Riverside, CA |
$250,000 |
0.8% |
30.4% |
$1,590 |
0.3% |
1.9% |
| Phoenix, AZ |
$186,000 |
0.7% |
19.4% |
$1,147 |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
| Seattle, WA |
$306,000 |
0.0% |
13.8% |
$1,705 |
0.9% |
6.0% |
| Minneapolis-St Paul, MN |
$199,700 |
0.1% |
15.6% |
$1,472 |
0.4% |
2.7% |
| San Diego, CA |
$437,500 |
0.9% |
20.4% |
$2,166 |
0.4% |
2.7% |
| St. Louis, MO |
$128,200 |
-0.9% |
0.9% |
$1,111 |
0.2% |
0.1% |
| Tampa, FL |
$129,500 |
0.7% |
16.2% |
$1,211 |
0.1% |
3.0% |
| Baltimore, MD |
$229,000 |
-0.7% |
4.3% |
$1,681 |
-0.2% |
0.8% |
| Denver, CO |
$246,500 |
-0.2% |
9.9% |
$1,613 |
1.1% |
8.1% |
| Pittsburgh, PA |
$111,400 |
-0.7% |
1.8% |
$1,038 |
1.4% |
3.4% |
| Portland, OR |
$258,000 |
-0.2% |
13.6% |
$1,456 |
0.9% |
5.0% |
| Sacramento, CA |
$284,500 |
0.3% |
30.4% |
$1,475 |
0.3% |
1.7% |
| Orlando, FL |
$148,300 |
1.1% |
20.2% |
$1,262 |
0.6% |
5.3% |
| Cincinnati, OH |
$128,800 |
0.1% |
4.2% |
$1,120 |
0.7% |
5.9% |
| Cleveland, OH |
$114,600 |
-0.1% |
3.6% |
$1,114 |
0.1% |
3.9% |
| Las Vegas, NV |
$164,600 |
1.5% |
33.2% |
$1,171 |
0.4% |
2.0% |
| San Jose, CA |
$731,500 |
-0.1% |
19.6% |
$2,737 |
0.8% |
6.1% |
| Columbus, OH |
$133,800 |
0.5% |
5.6% |
$1,211 |
0.8% |
6.2% |
| Charlotte, NC |
$140,900 |
0.1% |
3.5% |
$1,144 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
About Zillow:
Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z) operates the largest home-related marketplaces on mobile and the Web, with a complementary portfolio of brands and products that help people find vital information about homes, and connect with the best local professionals. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. Dr. Humphries and his team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 350 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. The Zillow, Inc. portfolio includes Zillow.com®, Zillow Mobile, Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, Zillow Rentals, Zillow Digs™, Postlets®, Diverse Solutions®, Agentfolio™, Mortech®, HotPads™ and StreetEasy®. The company is headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow.com, Zillow, Postlets, Mortech, Diverse Solutions and StreetEasy are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc. HotPads, Digs and Agentfolio are trademarks of Zillow, Inc.
i The Zillow Home Value Index is the median estimated home value for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given period. It is expressed in dollars, and seasonally adjusted.
ii The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research/. The data in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports is aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for 931 metropolitan and micropolitan areas dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data is typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro, city, ZIP code and neighborhood level can be accessed at www.zillow.com/local-info/.
iii The Zillow Home Value Forecast uses data from past home value trends and current market conditions, including leading indicators like home sales, months of housing inventory supply and unemployment, to predict home values over the next 12 months for the nation and for more than 250 markets across the country.
iv The Zillow Rent Index is the median Rent Zestimate (estimated monthly rental price) for a given geographic area on a given day, and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums, cooperatives and apartments in Zillow's database, regardless of whether they are currently listed for rent. It is expressed in dollars.
SOURCE Zillow, Inc.
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