Owing Largely to the Generic Erosion of Key Antiretroviral Agents, Growth in the HIV Drug Market Will Decline to 2.2 Percent Annually From 2014 to 2019

BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the HIV drug market will experience an average annual increase of 3.1 percent from 2009 to 2014 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan. Thereafter, market growth will slow to 2.2 percent annually from 2014 through 2019, owing largely to the generic erosion of several key antiretroviral agents.

The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Human Immunodeficiency Virus finds that although sales of Bristol-Myers Squibb/Gilead's Atripla will continue to increase over the next several years, two emerging fixed-dose combination products—Gilead's Quad and Tibotec/Gilead's rilpivirine/tenofovir/emtricitabine—will challenge Atripla's dominance in the HIV market though 2019. Specifically, Quad is forecast to be the top-selling agent for HIV, with sales of $2.8 billion in 2019.

"Assuming concerns over rilpivirine's virological failure rate are resolved, the coformulation of rilpivirine/tenofovir/emtricitabine has the potential to displace Atripla as the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen of choice, due to its greatly improved safety profile," said Decision Resources Analyst Courtney Stanton, Ph.D. "Additionally, if Quad's impressive safety and efficacy data in Phase II clinical trials are confirmed in Phase III, Atripla will lose even greater market share once Quad hits the market."

The Pharmacor 2010 findings also reveal that the two most recently launched new drug classes—the integrase inhibitors and CCR5 antagonists—have received mixed reviews from interviewed HIV specialists. Merck's Isentress, the first-in-class integrase inhibitor, has been praised for its low-toxicity and high efficacy. However, physicians have also noted its comparatively low barrier to resistance, high cost and twice-daily dosing. Despite these concerns, the overall perception of Isentress is positive and the agent has seen a healthy uptake in the market, garnering more than eight percent patient share in 2009.

The sole CCR5 antagonist on the market, ViiV's Selzentry, has not had as positive a reception by prescribers. While Selzentry is recognized as a highly effective and safe treatment option, the major obstacles to its use have been the required tropism assay and limited patient eligibility.  

Additionally, an emerging focus on inflammation and aging in the more mature HIV population has prompted physician interest in therapeutic options that not only control viral replication, but also have additional therapeutic benefit, such as Tobira's TBR-652, a CCR5 inhibitor that has potential anti-inflammatory properties.

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