Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results: UNICA Sugarcane Crush - 2H November

Advance Estimates Suggest a 2H November Cane Crush of 18.08 Million MT in Brazil's Center-South

- Likely 36.47% Sugar Mix for 2H November 2015: Analysts -

04 Dec, 2015, 14:34 ET from Platts

LONDON and SAO PAULO, Dec. 4, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --

Platts Survey of Analysts

  • Cane crush: 18.08 million metric tons (mt)
  • Total recoverable sugar (ATR): 120.48 kilograms per metric ton (kg/mt)
  • Sugar production: 758,120 mt
  • Total ethanol production: 820 million liters (ltr)
  • Hydrous ethanol production: 479 million ltr
  • Anhydrous ethanol production: 340 million ltr
  • Sugar mix: 36.47%
  • Ethanol mix: 63.53%

Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South (CS) region of Brazil in the second half (2H) of November are expected to total 18.08 million mt, a decline of almost 30% compared to the first half of November, as rains disrupted several days of crushing, according to a Platts survey of analysts. Platts is a leading global provider of energy and commodities information and premier source of independent benchmark price references. The consensus estimate accounts for an average of eight days of crush lost to rain.

Wider analyst expectations for cane crush spanned 14.9 million mt to 21.5 million mt. Brazilian sugarcane industry group UNICA is expected to release its bi-weekly sugarcane harvest data next week.

The poll of analysts shows a consensus forecast for total recoverable sugar (ATR) at 120.48 kg/mt, with a wider range of 112.4-125 kg/mt. Analysts at Platts Kingsman, an agricultural analytics unit of Platts, forecast a cane crush of 21.5 million mt and an ATR of 121.50 kg/mt, down 7 kg/mt from first half November.

Platts Kingsman senior analyst Claudiu Covrig said the arrival of more rain over the latest two-week reporting period could bring mixed news for the current crop and as the market begins to look ahead to the next season.

"It has rained a lot in Brazil lately and even more during the second half of November than in the first," Covrig noted. "It is not unusual to have rain at this time of year, and this wet weather could be good for the cane that will be harvested next season, which is due to start early April or even in March, weather permitting. But on the other hand, rain has disrupted crushing, and, according to our estimates, about eight days were lost to rain in 2H November."

The Platts Kingsman analysis suggests the ATR in some locations could be significantly lower than in 1H November. "Local sources are telling us that the ATR recorded by various mills in wetter areas are as low as 120 kg/mt of cane which represents a drop of about 8.5 kg/mt from the previous two weeks," Covrig said.

According to the Platts survey of industry analysts conducted this week, the sugar mix in 2H November is expected to be 36.47%, practically the same on 2H November 2014 at 36.46%.

In terms of ethanol production, the average of analysts' expectations pointed to total output of 819.59 million liters, which would be a drop of 372.4 million liters from 1H November. This would take cumulative ethanol production since the start of the season on April 1 to 25.7 billion liters, up 2.1% from a year earlier.

Hydrous ethanol production is expected to be 479.14 million liters, down 8% year over year in 2H November, taking cumulative production to 15.9 billion liters, 8.8% higher than a year earlier.

2H November anhydrous output is expected to be 340.45 million liters, down 212.6 million liters from the previous two-week period, but 17% higher on the year.

Producers have recently diverted more cane to anhydrous production to minimize the tight situation expected for the intercrop period, according to Platts Kingsman analysis.

Platts Kingsman expects anhydrous stocks in CS Brazil on April 1, 2016 of roughly 500 million liters, the equivalent of fewer than 20 days of consumption. The situation appears even tighter when taking into account anhydrous exports and transfers to the North-Northeast region during Q1.

Accumulated anhydrous production is expected to reach 9.8 billion liters, down 7% from the same point a year earlier. Brazilian Gasoline C is a blend of gasoline A with 27% anhydrous ethanol.

 

CS Brazil Cane Production Data – 2H November, 2015 (as of Dec. 01)

Category       

Unit       

Survey  

Kingsman

UNICA (2014)  

Cane crush

(million mt)   

18.08

21.5

15.77

ATR

(kg/mt cane)

120.35

121.5

137.75

Sugar output   

(thousand mt)   

758.12

910

759

Ethanol total  

(million ltr)  

819.59

970

814

Hydrous output 

(million ltr)  

479.14

505

523

Anhydrous output

(million ltr)  

340.45

465

291

Sugar Mix

(%)

36.47

36.5

36.46

Ethanol Mix    

(%)

63.53

63.5

63.54






    CS Brazil Cane Production Data – 1H November, 2015 (as of Nov. 16)


Category       

Unit       

Kingsman

UNICA  


Cane crush     

(million mt)   

26.2

25.614


ATR            

(kg/mt cane)

130.8

128.5


Sugar output   

(million mt)   

1.3

1.199


Ethanol total  

(million ltr)  

1,206

1,189


Hydrous output 

(million ltr)  

645

635


Anhydrous output

(million ltr)  

561

553


Sugar Mix

(%)

39.8

38.2


Ethanol Mix    

(%)

60.2

61.8


 

Visit the Platts and Platts Kingsman websites for more information on sugar and biofuels.

Contact Platts Communications to arrange interviews with Platts Kingsman sugar and ethanol analysts:  Claudiu Covrig, Maria Nunez, Alessandra Rosete, and Beatriz Pupo; and Platt's sugar price assessments specialists: David Elward, Nicolle Monteiro de Castro and Darren Stetzel. If you would like to receive this on a regular basis, please select Agriculture at this alerts sign-up link.

Editor's Note: In its bi-monthly cane harvest update, UNICA publishes a range of sugarcane harvest production metrics for Brazil's Center-South region, also broken down into São Paulo and other states.

CONTACT
Global, Americas, Asia: Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, kathleen.tanzy@platts.com

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