PMI™ at 49%; May Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; New Orders, Production and Inventories Contracting; Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Faster

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of May 2013.

TEMPE, Ariz., June 3, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in May for the first time since November 2012, and the overall economy grew for the 48th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI registered 49 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from April's reading of 50.7 percent, indicating contraction in manufacturing for the first time since November 2012 and only the second time since July 2009. This month's PMIreading is at its lowest level since June 2009, when it registered 45.8 percent. The New Orders Index decreased in May by 3.5 percentage points to 48.8 percent, and the Production Index decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 48.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 50.1 percent, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared to April's reading of 50.2 percent. The Prices Index registered 49.5 percent, decreasing 0.5 percentage point from April, indicating that overall raw materials prices decreased from last month. Several comments from the panel indicate a flattening or softening in demand due to a sluggish economy, both domestically and globally."

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 10 are reporting growth in May in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Paper Products. The six industries reporting contraction in May — listed in order — are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Primary Metals.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • "Customers are anticipating resin price decreases and holding back orders." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Slight uptick in overall business but not substantial." (Textile Mills)
  • "Government spending has tightened, which has moved out program awards and caused some reduction in force." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Market outlook is relatively flat, with some promise of raw materials inflation relaxing." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • "General economy seems sluggish and pensive. Buyers are not buying much beyond lead times." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Downturn in European and Chinese markets is having a negative effect on our business." (Machinery)
  • "We are having a difficult time hiring skilled employees." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Business continues to increase, but over the past 20 days we have seen the trend flatten." (Furniture & Related Products)
  • "Market was holding strong until mid-month — then softened." (Wood Products)
  • "Decline in sales for FYQ2 over same period a year ago due to softer demand [in] both domestic and exports." (Chemical Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE

MAY 2013

Index

Series Index

May

Series Index

Apr

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of Change

Trend*
(Months)








PMI

49.0

50.7

-1.7

Contracting

From Growing

1

New Orders

48.8

52.3

-3.5

Contracting

From Growing

1

Production

48.6

53.5

-4.9

Contracting

From Growing

1

Employment

50.1

50.2

-0.1

Growing

Slower

44

Supplier Deliveries

48.7

50.9

-2.2

Faster

From Slowing

1

Inventories

49.0

46.5

+2.5

Contracting

Slower

3

Customers' Inventories

46.0

44.5

+1.5

Too Low

Slower

18

Prices

49.5

50.0

-0.5

Decreasing

From Unchanged

1

Backlog of Orders

48.0

53.0

-5.0

Contracting

From Growing

1

Exports

51.0

54.0

-3.0

Growing

Slower

6

Imports

54.5

55.0

-0.5

Growing

Slower

4








OVERALL ECONOMY

 

Growing

Slower

48

Manufacturing Sector

Contracting

From Growing

1





*Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Caustic Soda (2); Corrugated Boxes (10); Corrugated Packaging; Lumber (5); and Natural Gas (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Polypropylene; Stainless Steel; Steel (2); Steel — Hot Rolled; and Sugar.

Commodities in Short Supply
Lumber — Hardwood, Pine and Plywood is the only commodity reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

MAY 2013 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI™
Manufacturing contracted in May as the PMI registered 49 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points when compared to April's reading of 50.7 percent. This month's reading reflects the second month of contraction in the manufacturing sector since July 2009, when the index registered 49.9 percent. It is also the lowest reading for the PMIsince June 2009, when the index registered 45.8 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the May PMI indicates growth for the 48th consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector for the first time since November 2012. Holcomb stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through May (51.7 percent) corresponds to a 3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis. In addition, if the PMI for May (49 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 2.1 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month

PMI


Month

PMI

May 2013

49.0


Nov 2012

49.9

Apr 2013

50.7


Oct 2012

51.7

Mar 2013

51.3


Sep 2012

51.6

Feb 2013

54.2


Aug 2012

50.7

Jan 2013

53.1


Jul 2012

50.5

Dec 2012

50.2


Jun 2012

50.2

Average for 12 months – 51.1

High – 54.2

Low – 49.0

New Orders
ISM's New Orders Index registered 48.8 percent in May, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points when compared to the April reading of 52.3 percent. This represents contraction in new orders for the first time since December 2012, when the index registered 49.7 percent. A New Orders Index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The seven industries reporting growth in new orders in May — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Machinery. The eight industries reporting a decrease in new orders during May — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

New Orders

%Better

%Same

%Worse

Net

Index

May 2013

28

50

22

+6

48.8

Apr 2013

34

46

20

+14

52.3

Mar 2013

31

52

17

+14

51.4

Feb 2013

37

47

16

+21

57.8

Production
ISM's Production Index registered 48.6 percent in May, which is a decrease of 4.9 percentage points when compared to the 53.5 percent reported in April. This month's reading indicates contraction in production for the first time since August 2012, when the index registered 48.9 percent. It also reflects only the second month of contraction for the index since May 2009. An index above 51.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.

The nine industries reporting growth in production during the month of May — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. The five industries reporting a decrease in production in May are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Production

%Better

%Same

%Worse

Net

Index

May 2013

26

57

17

+9

48.6

Apr 2013

33

53

14

+19

53.5

Mar 2013

33

51

16

+17

52.2

Feb 2013

36

49

15

+21

57.6

Employment
ISM's Employment Index registered 50.1 percent in May, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than the 50.2 percent reported in April. This month's reading indicates growth in employment for the 44th consecutive month, but at a slightly slower rate. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 reported growth in employment in May in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Machinery. The four industries reporting a decrease in employment in May are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

May 2013

22

60

18

+4

50.1

Apr 2013

26

57

17

+9

50.2

Mar 2013

24

60

16

+8

54.2

Feb 2013

21

65

14

+7

52.6

Supplier Deliveries
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster in May as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48.7 percent, which is 2.2 percentage points lower than the 50.9 percent reported in April. The index has alternated between slower and faster supplier deliveries for the past four months. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The five industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in May are: Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The six industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in May — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in May compared to April.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

Net

Index

May 2013

8

85

7

+1

48.7

Apr 2013

12

81

7

+5

50.9

Mar 2013

11

82

7

+4

49.4

Feb 2013

9

84

7

+2

51.4

Inventories*
The Inventories Index registered 49 percent in May, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the 46.5 percent reported in April. This month's reading indicates that respondents are reporting inventories contracted in May for the third consecutive month, but at a slower rate than in April. An Inventories Index greater than 42.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The seven industries reporting higher inventories in May — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The three industries reporting decreases in inventories in May are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Transportation Equipment. Eight industries reported no change in raw materials inventories in May compared to April.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

May 2013

20

58

22

-2

49.0

Apr 2013

18

57

25

-7

46.5

Mar 2013

20

59

21

-1

49.5

Feb 2013

22

59

19

+3

51.5

Customers' Inventories*
The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 46 percent in May, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than in April when the index registered 44.5 percent. This month's reading indicates that customers' inventories are considered too low, but higher than reported in April. Customers' inventories have registered at or below 50 percent for 50 consecutive months. A reading below 50 percent indicates customers' inventories are considered too low.

The four manufacturing industries reporting customers' inventories as being too high during the month of May are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The eight industries reporting customers' inventories as too low during May — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. Six industries reported no change in customers' inventories in May compared to April.

Customers' Inventories

% Reporting

% Too High

% About Right

%Too Low

Net

Index

May 2013

70

14

64

22

-8

46.0

Apr 2013

71

11

67

22

-11

44.5

Mar 2013

75

14

67

19

-5

47.5

Feb 2013

69

11

71

18

-7

46.5

Prices*
The ISM Prices Index registered 49.5 percent in May, which is a decrease of 0.5 percentage point compared to the April reading of 50 percent. This also indicates that raw materials prices decreased in May for the first time since July 2012. The Prices Index has decreased by 12 percentage points in the last three months. In May, 19 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices, 20 percent reported paying lower prices, and 61 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in April. A Prices Index above 49.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, seven reported paying increased prices during the month of May in the following order: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The seven industries reporting paying lower prices during May — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

May 2013

19

61

20

-1

49.5

Apr 2013

15

70

15

0

50.0

Mar 2013

21

67

12

+9

54.5

Feb 2013

31

61

8

+23

61.5

Backlog of Orders*
ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 48 percent in May, which is 5 percentage points lower than the 53 percent reported in April. This is the first month of contracting order backlogs since January 2013, when the index registered 47.5 percent. Of the 82 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 23 percent reported greater backlogs, 27 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 50 percent reported no change from April.

The eight industries reporting increased order backlogs in May — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The eight industries reporting decreases in order backlogs during May — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery.

Backlog of Orders

% Reporting

%Greater

%Same

%Less

Net

Index

May 2013

82

23

50

27

-4

48.0

Apr 2013

85

25

56

19

+6

53.0

Mar 2013

85

22

58

20

+2

51.0

Feb 2013

83

26

58

16

+10

55.0

New Export Orders*
ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 51 percent in May, which is 3 percentage points lower than the 54 percent reported in April. This month's reading represents the sixth consecutive month of growth in new export orders, and follows six consecutive months of contraction dating back to June 2012.

The four industries reporting growth in new export orders in May are: Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders during May are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products. Ten industries reported no change in new export orders in May compared to April.

New Export Orders

% Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

May 2013

76

16

70

14

+2

51.0

Apr 2013

75

18

72

10

+8

54.0

Mar 2013

77

22

68

10

+12

56.0

Feb 2013

73

16

75

9

+7

53.5

Imports*
ISM's Imports Index registered 54.5 percent in May, which is 0.5 percentage point lower than the 55 percent reported in April. This month's reading represents the sixth consecutive month that the Imports Index has registered at or above 50 percent.

The six industries reporting growth in imports during the month of May — listed in order — are: Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment. The three industries reporting a decrease in imports during May are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Primary Metals. Nine industries reported no change in imports in May compared to April.

Imports

% Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

May 2013

75

16

77

7

+9

54.5

Apr 2013

76

19

72

9

+10

55.0

Mar 2013

77

18

72

10

+8

54.0

Feb 2013

75

20

68

12

+8

54.0

* The Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased 3 days to 125 days. Average lead time for Production Materials increased 4 days to 62 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies remained the same at 26 days.

Percent Reporting

Capital Expenditures

Hand-to-Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average Days

May 2013

27

5

10

19

23

16

125

Apr 2013

26

4

13

16

28

13

122

Mar 2013

28

7

9

19

25

12

114

Feb 2013

28

10

9

18

22

13

112









Production Materials

Hand-to-Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average Days

May 2013

17

34

26

15

4

4

62

Apr 2013

18

30

33

13

3

3

58

Mar 2013

17

37

26

13

4

3

57

Feb 2013

17

35

27

14

5

2

56









MRO Supplies

Hand-to-Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average Days

May 2013

43

40

13

3

1

0

26

Apr 2013

43

40

13

4

0

0

26

Mar 2013

44

39

13

3

1

0

26

Feb 2013

47

38

10

4

1

0

25

About this Report
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries (seasonally adjusted), and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42.2 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.2 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.2 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® monthly reports, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, the first supply institute in the world. Founded in 1915, ISM exists to lead and serve the supply management profession and is a highly influential and respected association in the global marketplace. ISM's mission is to enhance the value and performance of procurement and supply chain management practitioners and their organizations worldwide. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM's website at www.ism.ws on the first business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the June 2013 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Monday, July 1, 2013.

Contact:

Rose Marie Goupil


ISM, ROB Media Relations


Tempe, Arizona


800/888-6276, Ext. 3015


E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20121101/LA02871LOGO)

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management



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