Population of Appreciating Homes Continues to Fall in November

Feb 03, 2016, 08:00 ET from Weiss Analytics

NATICK, Mass., Feb. 3, 2016 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The percentage of US homes gaining value fell again in November. Only 57.9 percent of homes are now appreciating, down from 59.4 percent in September and 6.4 percentage points below the percent of houses appreciating in November 2014, according to the latest data from Weiss Analytics.

"The steady erosion of homes that are appreciating is continuing," said Allan Weiss, CEO and founder of Weiss Analytics.    Weiss noted that many leading housing economists, including those at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Case Shiller, Clear Capital, and CoreLogic, expect median price appreciation to slow in 2016.

"This is nothing like the rate of erosion we saw in the percent of houses rising in the 18 months prior to the housing meltdown, however this steady decline in appreciation is concerning," said Weiss.  Among the top ten appreciating markets in November, at least seven had high levels of foreclosures and five have recovered less than 75 percent of their peak values. 

Weiss Analytics applies big data techniques, including proprietary algorithms and repeat sales indexes to determine current and future residential price changes in its database of 50 million price indexes. Weiss Indexes are used by leading investment funds, real estate professionals and individual real estate investors.

National Summary of Appreciating and Depreciating Homes


November 2015

Total Homes*

November 2015

Percentage of Database

November 2014

Total Homes

November 2014

Percentage of Database

Change

2014-2015

Total Appreciating

28,318,281*

57.9%

31,495,679*

 

64.3%

-6.4 points

 

Total Depreciating

 

11,833,930*

24.2%

7,282,612*

14.9%

+9.3 points

*These are actual totals of appreciating and depreciating homes in the Weiss Index database, which contains data from more than half of the nation's 75 million owner-occupied housing units.

Top Ten Appreciating Metros

Metro

November '14

November '15

change

Reno, NV

100.0%

85.5%

-14.5%

Port St. Lucie, FL

94.8%

85.2%

-9.6%

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

94.6%

84.1%

-10.5%

Flint, MI

66.9%

83.2%

16.4%

Santa Rosa, CA

96.1%

82.6%

-13.5%

Stockton-Lodi, CA

91.3%

82.5%

-8.8%

Modesto, CA

97.3%

82.1%

-15.1%

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

94.4%

82.1%

-12.3%

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

93.7%

82.0%

-11.7%

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA

95.7%

81.5%

-14.3%

Based on the top 150 metros by population

Bottom Ten Appreciating Metros

Metro

November '14

November '15

change

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO

57.5%

37.3%

-20.2%

Oklahoma City, OK

62.6%

36.4%

-26.2%

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

34.1%

36.1%

2.1%

Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton, PA

27.0%

34.4%

7.4%

Rochester, NY

52.8%

33.6%

-19.2%

Urban Honolulu, HI

61.5%

33.0%

-28.5%

Canton-Massillon, OH

53.6%

32.8%

-20.7%

Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA

47.4%

31.2%

-16.2%

Trenton, NJ

41.5%

30.5%

-11.0%

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

25.6%

25.1%

-0.5%

Based on the top 150 metros by population

Top Ten Depreciating Metros

Metro

November '14

November '15

change

Trenton, NJ

27.6%

61.9%

34.3%

Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton, PA

56.6%

57.1%

0.6%

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

36.8%

45.3%

8.6%

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT

40.8%

41.2%

0.4%

Urban Honolulu, HI

8.8%

41.2%

32.4%

Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA

23.6%

40.9%

17.3%

Springfield, MA

35.8%

40.2%

4.4%

Knoxville, TN

19.8%

39.3%

19.5%

Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL

29.9%

39.1%

9.1%

Peoria, IL

37.1%

38.4%

1.3%

Based on the top 150 metros by population

Bottom Ten Depreciating Metros                                        

Metro

November '14

November '15

change

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

3.0%

9.8%

6.8%

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO

7.1%

9.6%

2.5%

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA

1.1%

9.3%

8.2%

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

1.0%

9.2%

8.2%

Port St. Lucie, FL

1.8%

7.9%

6.1%

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

1.6%

7.7%

6.1%

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

0.9%

7.4%

6.5%

Modesto, CA

0.3%

6.3%

6.0%

Stockton-Lodi, CA

2.3%

5.2%

2.9%

Reno, NV

0.0%

4.0%

4.0%

Based on the top 150 metros by population

About Weiss Analytics

Weiss Analytics was founded to help fill the knowledge and innovation gap that led to the great housing crash of 2007 as well as to help mitigate the financial risk of home ownership going forward.  WA is a pioneer in next generation home price analytics.  Building on Weiss' unique expertise in repeat sales home price indexes, the firm has increased the resolution of market analysis by nearly 10,000-fold.  WA has created nearly 100 million repeat sales indexes, one for each house, through the use of Big Data techniques, novel algorithms and by harnessing the power of massively parallel multi-CPU computing power.  

Weiss' approach presents home price dynamics at the house level or any user-defined aggregation.  Instead of being forced to use arbitrary market definitions such as 'metro area', users can define their own markets such as 'all houses with a current value above $500,000 within a 50-mile radius of the Statue of Liberty".  In some cases, markets organically define themselves as can be seen by the clustering in our market maps and dynamic maps. New trends can therefore be discovered, new sub markets defined, compared and ranked. 

Find out more about Weiss Analytics, go to https://www.weissanalytics.com

 

SOURCE Weiss Analytics