Reportlinker Adds The Post Carbon Landscape: Alternative Pathways to a Low Carbon Landscape
NEW YORK, July 6 /PRNewswire/ --Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
The Post Carbon Landscape: Alternative pathways to a low carbon landscape
Over the last 30 years more and more scientists and economists have come to understand that the world is a complex dynamic system rather than a linear Newtonian one.
The world of finance experienced the extreme effects of the workings of a complex dynamic system as relatively isolated events on the world stage were amplified rapidly into features which threatened the totality of the global economic system. We are currently living through the aftermath of this extreme turbulence.
The world of energy is about to enter an era of ever increasing complexity and interdependence as patterns of demand shift through such changes as a moves to the electrification of transport, as populations grow, and as rising economic prosperity spurs on demand for energy based services. What the size and shape of demand will be is highly uncertain. What the portfolio of sources will be to meet that demand is also highly uncertain with the advent of non-traditional sources of oil and gas, the growth of renewable generation, the potential rise of distributed community based generation, the in-home generation potential, and the use of cars and homes as energy sinks and storage. In addition we see the gas and electricity markets moving from a world defined by energy and metering to one defined by communications and IT (together with energy and metering). Picturing this world as a system is the essential first step in understanding what may happen.
Key features of this report
- Exploration of the complex dynamic system of energy
- A review of the bandwidth of demand uncertainty based on projections of population growth, rising economic prosperity and the potential for energy efficiency improvement
- An examination of how the world of supply may evolve
- An exploration of two scenarios – pathways to a Low Carbon Landscape
- A comparison of the scenarios and the evidence for them in the world today
- The argument for complex dynamic system simulation as an essential tool for managing the energy future
Scope of this report
- Achieve a quick and comprehensive understanding of how energy market demand trends and supply possibilities may impact on the world by 2050
- Gain a helicopter perspective on how the various elements of the energy system interact
- Understand the bandwidth of uncertainty facing the world in order to appreciate the breadth of outcome, and the scale of the challenge, facing all of us
- Identify the opportunities for grasping emergent market elements such as non-conventional gas, in-home and community generation etc
Key Market Issues
- Climate change:- The growth of carbon dioxide emissions globally potentially threaten the viability of our existing socio-economic systems. Governments around the globe are extremely aware of the issues although differences in beliefs and responses mean that it is by no means certain what our carbon outcome will be
- Demographics:- The population is set to grow from just under 6 billion to just over 9 billion people. By 2050 the economic prosperity of the Chinese is likely to the same as the citizens of the USA today which in turn will fuel the demand for energy services. Demographics put us on the path to a world of extremely high energy demand – and a very high carbon outcome.
- Demand:- Looking at both demographics and potential energy savings the bandwidth of future demand lies somewhere between 12 and 24 billion tonnes of oil equivalent in 2050 vs a level of 8 billion tonnes of oil equivalent today
Key findings from this report
- The world of energy and carbon can be represented as a complex dynamic system
- Energy demand will increase either a little or a lot, from 8 billion tonnes of oil equivalent today to somewhere between 12 and 24 billion tonnes of oil equivalent by 2050
- A lack of hydrocarbon molecules is not the problem – even given peak oil. The questions are: can these be exploited in an environmentally and economically acceptable fashion? And can the growth of supply keep up with the pace of growth of demand?
- To mitigate climate change energy efficiency is not enough – the decarbonisation of supply is essential
- Significant benefits can be derived from electrifying transport, and to some extent heating, providing the source of the electricity is carbon free
Key questions answered
- What will the demographics of the world look like in 2050 in terms of the number of people, wealth and energy based service requirements?
- What levels of energy efficiency improvement can we foresee?
- What are the implications for energy demand – in total and at sector level?
- Where will future hydrocarbons come from after peak oil?
- What will generation look like in 2050?
Table of Contents
The Post Carbon Landscape
Acknowledgements iii
Practitioner Insight iii
Executive summary 12
Introduction 12
The low carbon system 12
Energy demand 12
Household energy demand 13
Passenger transport 13
Marine and aviation 14
Industrial energy demand 15
Commercial energy demand 15
Demand summary 16
Carbon and energy prices 16
Energy supply 17
Generation 18
Joining the markets – energy transmission and distribution 18
Two future worlds 19
Autonomy – "every man for himself" 19
Community – "all for one, and one for all" 19
"Autonomy" vs. "Community" 20
Conclusion 20
Chapter 1 Introduction 24
Summary 24
Introduction 24
The aim of this report 24
The systems and scenario approach 26
What this report is, and what it is not 27
The structure of the report 28
Chapter 2 The low carbon system 30
Summary 30
Introduction 30
Electricity supply 33
Smart Metering and Grids 35
Local sustainability 36
Chapter 3 Energy demand 40
Summary 40
Introduction 40
Chapter 4 Household energy demand 44
Summary 44
Introduction 45
Demographics 45
Climate change and population growth 48
Household heating, cooling, lighting and power 49
Growth in population/households 49
Growth in access to electricity 50
Complex system behavior 60
Fuel switching 62
Chapter 5 Passenger transport 64
Summary 64
Introduction 64
Vehicle type 68
From oil to the electric car 71
China and electric vehicles 73
Chapter 6 Marine and aviation 76
Summary 76
Introduction 76
Marine 76
Aviation 77
Chapter 7 Industrial energy demand 80
Summary 80
Introduction 80
Industry demand 80
Chapter 8 Commercial energy demand 84
Summary 84
Introduction 84
Commercial demand 84
Chapter 9 Demand summary 88
Summary 88
Introduction 88
Demand 88
Chapter 10 Carbon and energy prices 92
Summary 92
Introduction 92
The carbon pricing system 93
Carbon price direct impacts 94
Electrification 95
Economic growth 100
Hydrocarbon price 101
Emissions trading or taxes 102
Chapter 11 Energy supply 106
Summary 106
Introduction 107
Hydrocarbon 107
Availability of oil 108
Oil Shale and Shale Oil 113
Cost 115
Greenhouse gas emissions 116
Local environmental impacts 117
Availability of coal 118
Availability of gas 122
Gas from waste 123
Non-conventional gas 124
Gas hydrates 127
On balance 128
Chapter 12 Generation 130
Summary 130
Introduction 130
The current generation mix 130
The future generation mix 131
The replacement of centralized generation with distributed generation 134
Chapter 13 Joining the markets – energy transmission and distribution 140
Summary 140
Introduction 140
Smartening electricity and gas 140
Joining up electricity and gas 142
Smart communities 144
Chapter 14 Two future worlds 148
Summary 148
Introduction 148
Why scenarios? 148
Chapter 15 Autonomy – "every man for himself" 152
Summary 152
Introduction 152
Autonomy – "Everyman for himself" 153
Chapter 16 Community – "all for one, and one for all" 158
Summary 158
Introduction 158
Community – "All for one, and one for all" 159
Chapter 17 "Autonomy" vs. "Community" 166
Summary 166
Introduction 166
Autonomy versus Community 166
Weak signals 168
Strategic pointers 170
Chapter 18 Conclusion 174
Summary 174
Introduction 175
Lessons learned 175
Demand 175
Supply 175
The carbon and energy system 176
Scenarios 177
Further work 177
Glossary 179
In the System diagrams: 179
Index 181
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: Landscape carbon and demand, 2010 31
Figure 2.2: Energy price and hydrocarbon supply, 2010 32
Figure 2.3: Electricity supply 34
Figure 2.4: Smart (Metering and Grids) 35
Figure 2.5: Local sustainability, 2010 36
Figure 3.6: Demand, 2010 41
Figure 4.7: Energy intensity of economies, 1970-2005 50
Figure 4.8: Number of people without access to electricity (m), 2009 51
Figure 5.9: Fuel efficiency for cars and light trucks on the road (MPG) 1970-2005 66
Figure 5.10: Carbon content of fossil fuels (Tons of Carbon per TJ of energy) 72
Figure 10.11: The carbon pricing system, 2010 94
Figure 11.12: Ratio oil reserves to production, 2009 109
Figure 11.13: Peak Oil (bn barrels/year), 2007 110
Figure 11.14: Global Shale Oil reserves 114
Figure 11.15: Crude oil spot prices ($ per barrel), 1986-2009 115
Figure 11.16: Oil Shale economics 116
Figure 11.17: US production of unconventional gas (bcm), 2009 126
Figure 11.18: Percentage of total US gas production (bcm), 2009 127
Figure 15.19: Autonomy scenario, 2010 152
Figure 15.20: The carbon pricing system, 2010 156
Figure 16.21: Community scenario, 2010 159
Figure 16.22: The carbon pricing system, 2010 163
Figure 17.23: Autonomy vs. Community, 2010 167
List of Tables
Table 4.1: Population growth ratios, 2008 46
Table 4.2: Number of people without access to electricity (m), 2009 51
Table 4.3: GDP estimates 52
Table 4.4: Heating and cooling degree days 54
Table 4.5: Urbanization (%), 2007 55
Table 5.6: Passenger vehicles 65
Table 5.7: Carbon content of fossil fuels (Tons of Carbon per TJ of energy) 71
Table 9.8: Sectoral energy demand, 2010 89
Table 11.9: Oil consumption, production, reserves, 2009 111
Table 11.10: Global Shale Oil reserves 114
Table 11.11: Coal consumption, production, reserves, 2009 119
Table 11.12: Gas consumption, production, reserves, 2009 122
Table 12.13: Global generation mix, 2009 131
Table 12.14: Future generation mix, 2009 132
To order this report:
Environmental services Industry: The Post Carbon Landscape: Alternative pathways to a low carbon landscape
Environmental services Business News
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Nicolas Bombourg |
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