PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan. 24, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Risk experts in fields as varied as cybersecurity and pipeline safety are gathering in San Jose on March 7 and 8 to share their experiences in applying probability management, a new way to mitigate risk.
The importance of the new approach is highlighted by Farshad Miraftab, a Senior Risk Analyst for Gas Operations Risk Management at Pacific Gas & Electric. "The tragic 2010 San Bruno explosion became a catalyst for change and improved utility risk management practices," said Miraftab, who applies probability management to operational risk.
This new discipline has been called "transformational" by technology research firm Gartner Inc. in its 2016 Hype Cycle for Data Science. By leveraging recent breakthroughs in data standards and computer power, probability management helps managers make better everyday decisions in the face of uncertainty. All it takes is an Excel spreadsheet.
"Organizations no longer have an excuse for the common practice of representing uncertainties with single average estimates," said Dr. Sam Savage, Executive Director of Palo Alto based nonprofit ProbabilityManagement.org. "Using single numbers leads to the 'Flaw of Averages,' which explains why so many projects are behind schedule, beyond budget and below projection."
Modeling Uncertainty in Cybersecurity, Operational Risk, and Regulation is the theme of the 2017 Annual Conference hosted by ProbabilityManagement.org, which created the standards and tools that companies are using on a daily basis to manage risk.
Conference presentations will include:
- "Rolling Up Operational Risk at PG&E" by Farshad Miraftab, who uses probability management to aggregate risk across the gas transmission pipeline network. For more on how PG&E is using this approach, see http://goo.gl/imzO7E.
- "Communicating Uncertainty," by Nobel Laureate Harry Markowitz, the father of modern portfolio theory (via live webcast). Markowitz revolutionized investment strategy in the 1950s and was highly influential in the field of computer simulation, which is central to the discipline of probability management.
- "Probabilistic Measures of Cybersecurity Risk" by Douglas Hubbard, the inventor of Applied Information Economics and the author of several top-selling business analysis books, including How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk.
- "Cybersecurity: Is Your Risk Analysis Measuring the Right Threats?" — a panel chaired by Hubbard with other experts in the field including FBI Special Agents Michael Mansuy and Thomas Wei, GE Healthcare Cybersecurity Data Scientist Anton Mobley, and Twilio Chief Information Security Officer Richard Seiersen.
- "Probability Management Overview" by Sam Savage, Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, and an adjunct professor of Management Science & Engineering at Stanford University.
Modeling Uncertainty in Cybersecurity,
Operational Risk, and Regulation
March 7-8, 2017
Loring Ward Corporate Office
10 S Almaden Blvd, 15th Floor
San Jose, CA 95113
Register at https://goo.gl/HNWJRe
To learn more, visit ProbabilityManagement.org
Probability Management, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) non-profit that is changing the way we think about uncertainty through standards, best practices and education. Its board of directors includes Nobel Laureate in Economics Harry Markowitz and its sponsors include Chevron Corp., Lockheed Martin, Wells Fargo Bank, Lone Star Analysis, Loring Ward, Hubbard Decision Research, Computerlaw LLC, and the Foundation for Creative Dispute Resolution.
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