Rising Sea Levels Pose Significant Risk to Owners of Less Expensive Homes

Less affluent homeowners have more of their wealth stored in their homes, and could face catastrophic losses if their homes are damaged by higher sea levels

- $916 billion worth of U.S. homes could be lost if sea levels rise six feet

- Nearly two-thirds of homes at risk of rising sea levels are in suburban areas

- More than one quarter of all at-risk homes are in Miami

News provided by

Zillow

Oct 18, 2017, 08:00 ET

SEATTLE, Oct. 18, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Rising sea levels are expected to impact $916 billion worth of homes in the next 100 years, most of which are low-end or median-value homes.

Zillow^® analyzed the types of homes that could be underwater, absent preventative measures, based on recent estimates of how high sea levels could rise by 2100ⁱ due to climate change.

The majority of all homes at risk of flooding due to rising sea levels are in suburban areas – 65.4 percent of homes are in suburban areas, compared to 22.6 percent in urban locations and 12 percent in rural areasⁱⁱ.

Overall, 39 percent of the homes expected to be underwater in 2100 are among the nation's most valuable. The rest are near the median value or below – and a quarter are among the least valuable homes. This is significant because less wealthy communities and households are less likely to be able to afford preventative measures to ward off rising seas. For most homeowners, a home is their biggest single investment, and its value is a major share of their overall wealth. Any significant damage to a home is harder to recover from when most of an owner's wealth is tied up in that same home.

Owners of high-end homes are more likely to live in communities with the resources and connections needed to protect their homes, such as building sea walls or making structural changes that help homes withstand floodwaters. But in markets where the majority of homes at risk of rising water are among the least valuable in the area, these options might be out of reach.

Less than 20 percent of homes in Honolulu that are at risk of flooding due to rising sea levels are high-end homes. That means the majority of homeowners who could lose their homes may be less able to make investments to protect their properties, especially lower income homeowners who have to spend a larger share of their income on mortgage paymentsⁱⁱⁱ.

"We've seen the enormous impact flooding can have on a city and its residents," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. "It's harder for us to think about it on a long-term timeline, but the real risks that come with rising sea levels should not be ignored until it's too late to address them. With organized and committed planning, cities can help protect both current and future residents. Living near the water is incredibly appealing for people around the country, but it also comes with additional considerations for buyers and homeowners. Homes in low-lying areas are also more susceptible to storm flooding and these risks could be realized on a much shorter timeline as we have seen time and time again."

Miami holds 25.8 percent of all U.S. homes at risk of rising sea levels, which are cumulatively worth $217.3 billion. The three cities with the greatest number of homes threatened by higher sea levels are in the Miami metropolitan area. Fort Lauderdale, Miami Beach and Miami could all lose more than 30,000 homes to sea level increases.

20 Metropolitan Areas with the Most Homes Threatened By Sea Level Increases
			Value of Underwater Homes				Share of Homes
Metropolitan Area	# Under- water Homes	% Under- water Homes	All Homes	Bottom Tier	Middle Tier	Top Tier	Bottom Tier	Middle Tier	Top Tier
United States	1,863,308	1.8%	$916 billion	$123 billion	$195.5 billion	$597.4 billion	31.9%	29.1%	39.0%
Miami, FL	481,447	24.2%	$217.3 billion	$30.4 billion	$46.4 billion	$140.4 billion	37.6%	30.9%	31.5%
New York, NY	180,267	4.6%	$123.2 billion	$21.3 billion	$28.7 billion	$73.3 billion	30.5%	27.9%	41.6%
Tampa, FL	104,809	9.9%	$40.6 billion	$4.4 billion	$7.1 billion	$29.1 billion	29.6%	26.1%	44.3%
Fort Myers, FL	53,325	16.7%	$25.4 billion	$3.5 billion	$5.5 billion	$16.3 billion	32.5%	27.7%	39.8%
Boston, MA	52,694	4.3%	$42.7 billion	$5.6 billion	$8.6 billion	$28.5 billion	30.3%	28.9%	40.9%
Upper Township, NJ	45,757	56.6%	$29.3 billion	$5.2 billion	$9 billion	$15.1 billion	33.7%	34.0%	32.3%
Salisbury, MD	44,712	21.1%	$11.7 billion	$2.1 billion	$2.9 billion	$6.6 billion	34.5%	30.4%	35.1%
Virginia Beach, VA	42,743	8.3%	$13.5 billion	$1.8 billion	$2.8 billion	$8.9 billion	25.6%	27.7%	46.7%
Bradenton, FL	39,744	11.6%	$25.4 billion	$3 billion	$4.7 billion	$17.4 billion	30.7%	26.4%	42.8%
Naples, FL	38,106	20.9%	$28.1 billion	$2.8 billion	$3.8 billion	$21.5 billion	40.7%	23.5%	35.8%
Jacksonville, FL	37,462	7.7%	$15.1 billion	$1.5 billion	$3.2 billion	$10.4 billion	25.9%	27.6%	46.4%
Charleston, SC	36,800	15.5%	$26.6 billion	$2.7 billion	$5.4 billion	$18.5 billion	23.8%	28.0%	48.2%
Los Angeles, CA	34,309	1.3%	$37.5 billion	$4.2 billion	$12.3 billion	$21.1 billion	20.2%	38.8%	41.0%
Honolulu, HI	33,857	12.9%	$23.3 billion	$5.5 billion	$7.5 billion	$10.2 billion	46.5%	34.8%	18.6%
Houma, LA	33,394	53.4%	$5.5 billion	$1.1 billion	$1.5 billion	$2.9 billion	34.2%	31.4%	34.4%
Key West, FL	32,630	82.9%	$23.8 billion	$3.5 billion	$6.1 billion	$14.3 billion	32.4%	33.2%	34.4%
Egg Harbor Township, NJ	27,288	26.7%	$10.3 billion	$1.8 billion	$2.9 billion	$5.6 billion	33.4%	35.1%	31.5%
Palm Coast, FL	25,049	10.3%	$6.6 billion	$1.1 billion	$1.3 billion	$4.2 billion	37.1%	26.2%	36.8%
Houston, TX	23,682	1.3%	$6.6 billion	$974.5 million	$1.5 billion	$4.1 billion	30.5%	30.5%	39.0%
New Orleans, LA	23,587	6.6%	$4.9 billion	$1 billion	$1.3 billion	$2.6 billion	35.5%	28.9%	35.6%
Bluffton, SC	21,637	25.3%	$11.7 billion	$1.3 billion	$2.1 billion	$8.4 billion	30.8%	26.2%	43.0%

Zillow

Zillow is the leading real estate and rental marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with the best local professionals who can help. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.

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ⁱ https://www.zillow.com/research/climate-change-underwater-homes-12890/
ⁱⁱ Among homes for which Zillow has an urban/suburban/rural designation. About 10 percent of homes are not classified.
ⁱⁱⁱ https://www.zillow.com/research/low-income-mortgages-unaffordable-16490/

SOURCE Zillow