Royal Caribbean Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates 2012 Guidance

MIAMI, July 26, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE, OSE: RCL) today reported second quarter results and updated its guidance for the remainder of 2012.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Results For the Second Quarter of 2012:
    • Net loss was ($3.6 million), or ($0.02) per share, versus net income of $93.5 million, or $0.43 per share, in 2011.  Results include a ($0.05) per share mark-to-market loss on the company's WTI fuel option portfolio; 
    • Net Yields increased 4.5% on a Constant-Currency basis (+1.8% As-Reported).   Net Cruise Costs ("NCC") excluding fuel increased 8.3% on a Constant-Currency basis (+5.8% As-Reported);

Since the company's April guidance, the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar and decreases in fuel pricing have essentially offset one another.  Business demand remains solid in the Caribbean and Asia, but larger than anticipated discounting has been required in Europe which has resulted in a one percentage point decline to the midpoint of the company's Constant-Currency Net Yield expectations for the year.  The company has been able to offset more than half of the yield declines through additional spending reductions.  

  • Third Quarter 2012:
    • Net Yields are expected to decrease between (1%) and (2%) on a Constant-Currency basis and approximately (5%) on an As-Reported basis.  Earnings per share are expected to be within a range of $1.40 to $1.50.
  • Full Year 2012:
    • Net Yields are expected to increase 2% to 3% on a Constant-Currency basis and be between flat and up 1% on an As-Reported basis.  Earnings per share are expected to be within a range of $1.70 to $1.80.

"The steady drumbeat of negative news emanating out of Europe is certainly having an impact," said Richard D. Fain, chairman and chief executive officer.  Fain continued, "As a result, we are seeing pluses and minuses in the different geographical markets – North America is holding up reasonably well; Asia is a big plus; but Europe is a pretty consistent minus.  Overall we have seen about a 100 basis point drop in our yield projections, but we expect to offset over half of this decline with lower spending."

Second Quarter 2012 Results

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. today announced a second quarter 2012 net loss of ($3.6) million, or ($0.02) per share, versus income of $93.5 million, or $0.43 per share, in the second quarter of 2011.  Second Quarter 2012 results included a ($0.05) per share mark-to-market loss on the company's fuel option portfolio.  As previously reported, the impact of the tragedy in Italy seems to be particularly meaningful in the second and third quarters.

Net Yields increased 4.5% on a Constant-Currency basis (+1.8% As-Reported).  NCC excluding fuel increased 8.3% on a Constant-Currency basis (+5.8% As-Reported).  Approximately 280 basis points of the Net Yield improvement and approximately 600 basis points of the NCC increases during the quarter relate to previously announced deployment initiatives and changes to the company's distribution system. 

Bunker pricing net of hedging for the second quarter was $699 per metric ton and consumption was 340,000 metric tons. 

2012 Outlook

As the company has previously commented, the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar has historically been inversely correlated to bunker pricing.  Since the April guidance, the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar has reduced the company's full year outlook by approximately $0.13 per share.  This outlook reduction has been largely offset by the reduction in bunker pricing that occurred during this same time period.  The net effect of these currency and fuel price changes is essentially neutral for the company's full year earnings outlook.    However, the mark-to-market loss on the options is expected to cost the company a ($0.05) per share charge at current prices versus prior guidance.

Revenues

The company reported that overall, booking trends have continued to normalize and are now running at levels comparable to prior year's activity.   Larger than expected discounting has been required for the European season which has lowered the midpoint of the company's Constant-Currency Net Yield expectations for the year by approximately one percentage point from the April guidance.     

"It is hard to distinguish how much of the pressure in Europe is connected to the Costa Concordia incident and how much is due to the economic roller coaster," said Brian J. Rice, executive vice president and chief financial officer.  Rice continued, "Our sense is that the former is no longer having a major impact on our bookings especially amongst experienced guests.  However, the timing of the incident left a big gap during our peak booking period and filling that gap is disrupting our normal booking patterns."

For the full year of 2012, Net Yields are expected to increase 2% to 3% on a Constant-Currency basis and be between flat and up 1% on an As-Reported basis.  The expected effect of deployment initiatives and changes to the company's distribution system to Net Yields remains unchanged at +200 basis points for the full year.    

Expenses

The company's cost outlook for the year has improved and is expected to offset more than half of the decline in revenue.  For the full year, NCC excluding fuel are expected to increase approximately 4% on a Constant-Currency basis (approximately 2% As-Reported).  Excluding deployment initiatives and changes to the company's distribution system, Constant-Currency NCC excluding fuel are expected to increase less than 1% on a comparable basis to prior year.

Earnings Guidance

Taking into account current fuel pricing and currency exchange rates, and the factors detailed above, the company currently estimates 2012 earnings will be in the range of $1.70 to $1.80 per share.       

THIRD QUARTER OUTLOOK

Revenues

For the third quarter of 2012, Net Yields are expected to decrease between (1%) and (2%) on a Constant-Currency basis and approximately (5%) on an As-Reported basis.  Excluding previously referenced deployment initiatives and changes to the company's distribution system, Constant-Currency Net Yields are projected to decrease approximately (3%).

Expenses

For the third quarter of 2012, NCC excluding fuel are expected to increase approximately 3% on a Constant-Currency basis (flat to 1% As-Reported).  Approximately ¾ of the NCC excluding fuel increase in the quarter relates to the previously referenced deployment initiatives and changes to the company's distribution system.

Earnings Guidance

Taking into account current fuel pricing and currency exchange rates, and the factors detailed above, the company currently estimates that third quarter 2012 EPS will be within a range of $1.40 to $1.50.  

FUEL EXPENSE & GUIDANCE SUMMARY

Fuel Expense

The company does not forecast fuel prices, and its fuel cost calculations are based on current at-the-pump prices, net of hedging impacts. Based on today's fuel prices the company has included $213 million and $899 million of fuel expense in its third quarter 2012 and full year 2012 guidance, respectively. 

Forecasted consumption is now 58% hedged via swaps for the remainder of 2012 and 54%, 38%,  22% and 7% hedged for 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively.  For the same five-year period, the average cost per metric ton of the hedge portfolio is approximately $526, $568, $619, $595 and $582, respectively. 

In addition to the above-mentioned fuel hedges, the company also has fuel options to further protect against escalating fuel prices.   The company currently has options expiring in 2013 at a strike price of $90 bbl that cover an estimated 9% of 2013 consumption.   At today's bunker prices, the company's outstanding hedges (swaps and options) are "in the money" by about $70 million.  About half the value will relate to the remainder of this year and half to next year.  The amounts beyond next year are immaterial at today's rates.   

The company provided the following fuel statistics for the third quarter and full year 2012:

FUEL STATISTICS

Third Quarter 2012

Full Year 2012

Fuel Consumption (metric tons)

335,000

1,362,000

Fuel Expenses

$213 million

$899 million

Percent Hedged (fwd consumption)

56%

58%

Impact of 10% change in fuel prices *

$13 million

$26 million


*excludes mark-to-market impact of fuel options.

The company provided the following additional guidance for the third quarter and full year of 2012:

GUIDANCE

As-Reported                    Constant-Currency



Third Quarter 2012


Net Yields

Approx. (5%)

(1%) to (2%)


Net Cruise Costs per APCD

1% to 2%

3% to 4%


Net Cruise Costs per APCD,

excluding Fuel

Flat to +1%

Approx. 3%






Full Year 2012


Net Yields

Flat to +1%

2% to 3%


Net Cruise Costs per APCD

Approx. 5%

6% to 7%


Net Cruise Costs per APCD,

excluding Fuel

Approx. 2%

 Approx. 4%







Third Quarter 2012

Full Year 2012


Capacity Increase

0.2%

1.5%


Depreciation and Amortization

$180 to $190 million

$725 to $740 million


Interest Expense, net

$85 to $95 million

$345 to $360 million


EPS

$1.40 to $1.50

$1.70 to $1.80








Exchange rates used in guidance calculations



Current - July

Previous - April


EUR

$1.21

$1.31


GBP

CAD

BRL

AUD

$1.55

$0.98

$0.49

$1.03

$1.59

$1.01

$0.54

$1.04


Liquidity and Financing Arrangements

As of June 30, 2012, liquidity was $­­­1.1 billion, including cash and the undrawn portion of the company's unsecured revolving credit facilities.  Currently, liquidity is approximately $1.6 billion.  The company has utilized a portion of the accordion feature on its revolving credit facility due July 2016 which increased the size of the facility from $875 million to $1.1 billion.  The company has also closed on a €365 million, delayed draw (June 2013) five-year unsecured bank loan facility.  The combination of these actions provide liquidity of approximately $600 million and has been done primarily as part of the company's refinancing strategy to prepare for bond maturities in 2013 and 2014.

Additionally, the company has committed unsecured financing on its newbuilds.  The company noted that debt maturities for 2012, 2013, and 2014 are $600 million, $1.6 billion, and $1.9 billion, respectively.  

Capital Expenditures and Capacity Guidance

Based on current ship orders, projected capital expenditures for 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 are $1.3 billion, $600 million, $1.1 billion and $1.0 billion, respectively. 

Capacity increases for 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 are 1.5%, 1.1%, 1.0% and 6.6%, respectively.

Conference Call Scheduled

The company has scheduled a conference call at 10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time today to discuss its earnings.  This call can be heard, either live or on a delayed basis, on the company's investor relations web site at www.rclinvestor.com.

Selected Operational and Financial Metrics

Available Passenger Cruise Days ("APCD")

APCD is our measurement of capacity and represents double occupancy per cabin multiplied by the number of cruise days for the period.  We use this measure to perform capacity and rate analysis to identify the main non-capacity drivers that cause our cruise revenues and expenses to vary. 

Constant-Currency

We believe Net Yields and Net Cruise Costs are our most relevant non-GAAP financial measures.  However, a significant portion of our revenue and expenses are denominated in currencies other than the United States dollar. Because our reporting currency is the United States dollar, the value of these revenues and expenses in US dollars will be affected by changes in currency exchange rates.  Although such changes in local currency prices is just one of many elements impacting our revenues and expenses, it can be an important element.  For this reason, we also monitor Net Yields and Net Cruise Costs on a "Constant-Currency" basis – i.e. as if the current period's currency exchange rates had remained constant with the comparable prior period's rates.  We calculate "Constant-Currency" by applying the average prior year period exchange rates for each of the corresponding months of the reported and/or forecasted period, so as to calculate what the results would have been had exchange rates been the same throughout both periods.   It should be emphasized that the use of Constant-Currency is primarily used by us for comparing short-term changes and/or projections. 

Over the longer term, changes in guest sourcing and shifting the amount of purchases between currencies significantly change the impact of the purely currency based fluctuations. 

Gross Cruise Costs

Gross Cruise Costs represent the sum of total cruise operating expenses plus marketing, selling and administrative expenses.

Gross Yields

Gross Yields represent total revenues per APCD.

Net Cruise Costs and Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel

Net Cruise Costs and Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel represent Gross Cruise Costs excluding commissions, transportation and other expenses and onboard and other expenses and, in the case of Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel, fuel.  In measuring our ability to control costs in a manner that positively impacts net income, we believe changes in Net Cruise Costs and Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel to be the most relevant indicators of our performance.  A reconciliation of historical Gross Cruise Costs to Net Cruise Costs and Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel is provided below under Results of Operations.  We have not provided a quantitative reconciliation of projected Gross Cruise Costs to projected Net Cruise Costs and projected Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel due to the significant uncertainty in projecting the costs deducted to arrive at these measures.  Accordingly, we do not believe that reconciling information for such projected figures would be meaningful.

Net Debt-to-Capital

Net Debt-to-Capital is a ratio which represents total long-term debt, including the current portion of long-term debt, less cash and cash equivalents ("Net Debt") divided by the sum of Net Debt and total shareholders' equity.  We believe Net Debt and Net Debt-to-Capital, along with total long-term debt and shareholders' equity are useful measures of our capital structure. 

Net Revenues

Net Revenues represent total revenues less commissions, transportation and other expenses and onboard and other expenses.

Net Yields

Net Yields represent Net Revenues per APCD.  We utilize Net Revenues and Net Yields to manage our business on a day-to-day basis as we believe that it is the most relevant measure of our pricing performance because it reflects the cruise revenues earned by us net of our most significant variable costs, which are commissions, transportation and other expenses and onboard and other expenses.  We have not provided a quantitative reconciliation of projected Gross Yields to projected Net Yields due to the significant uncertainty in projecting the costs deducted to arrive at this measure.  Accordingly, we do not believe that reconciling information for such projected figures would be meaningful.

Occupancy

Occupancy, in accordance with cruise vacation industry practice, is calculated by dividing Passenger Cruise Days by APCD.  A percentage in excess of 100% indicates that three or more passengers occupied some cabins.

Passenger Cruise Days

Passenger Cruise Days represent the number of passengers carried for the period multiplied by the number of days of their respective cruises.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a global cruise vacation company that operates Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Pullmantur, Azamara Club Cruises, CDF Croisieres de France, and TUI Cruises through a 50% joint venture.  The company has a combined total of 38 ships in service and three under construction.  It also offers unique land-tour vacations in Alaska, Asia, Australia, Canada, Europe, Latin America and New Zealand.  Additional information can be found on www.royalcaribbean.com, www.celebrity.com, www.pullmantur.es, www.azamaraclubcruises.com, www.cdfcroisieresdefrance.com, www.tuicruises.com or www.rclinvestor.com.

Certain statements in this release relating to, among other things, our future performance constitute forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  These statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding expected financial results for the third quarter and full year 2012 and the costs and yields expected in 2012 and other future periods.  Words such as "anticipate," "believe," "could," "estimate," "expect," "goal," "intend," "may," "plan," "project," "seek," "should," "will," and similar expressions are intended to identify these forward-looking statements.  Forward-looking statements reflect management's current expectations, are inherently uncertain and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, which could cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in those forward-looking statements.  Examples of these risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to the following: the impact of the economic environment on the demand for cruises, the impact of the economic environment on our ability to generate cash flows from operations or obtain new borrowings from the credit or capital markets in amounts sufficient to satisfy our capital expenditures, debt repayments and other financing needs, the uncertainties of conducting business internationally and expanding into new markets, changes in operating and financing costs, vacation industry competition and changes in industry capacity and overcapacity, emergency ship repairs, including the related lost revenue, the impact of ship delivery delays, ship cancellations or ship construction price increases, financial difficulties encountered by shipyards or their subcontractors and incidents or adverse publicity concerning the cruise vacation industry such as the Costa Concordia casualty and the unavailability or cost of air service. 

More information about factors that could affect our operating results is included under the captions "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, copies of which may be obtained by visiting our Investor Relations web site at www.rclinvestor.com or the SEC's web site at www.sec.gov. Undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements in this release, which are based on information available to us on the date hereof. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Non-GAAP Measures of Financial Performance

This press release includes certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under Securities and Exchange Commission rules, which we believe provide useful information to investors as a supplement to our consolidated financial statements which are prepared and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP.

The presentation of non-GAAP financial information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for, or superior to, the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP.  These measures may be different from non-GAAP measures used by other companies. In addition, these non-GAAP measures are not based on any comprehensive set of accounting rules or principles. Non-GAAP measures have limitations in that they do not reflect all of the amounts associated with our results of operations as do the corresponding GAAP measures.