Based on GfK's Point of Sales data, smartphone demand totaled 1.41 billion units in 2016, in line with GfK's previously projected figures. Looking ahead, GfK forecasts global smartphone growth in 2017 to moderate to five percent year-on-year, with total demand reaching 1.48 billion.
Western Europe: A saturated market
Smartphone demand totaled 38.6 million units in 4Q16, down four percent year-on-year. In Great Britain, demand was strong during November's Black Friday promotions. However, this was not enough to offset 10 percent year-on-year declines in both Germany and France in the quarter. In 2016, the region saw a three percent fall in demand year-on-year, bringing sales for the year to 131.6 million units. GfK forecasts flat year-on-year demand in Western Europe in 2017, as the overall region reaches saturation.
Central and Eastern Europe: A Russian recovery
Here smartphone demand totaled 24.2 million units in 4Q16, up 16 percent year-on-year. Due to improving political stability, Ukraine saw an impressive growth of 34 percent year-on-year. In Russia, currency stablization was the leading catalyst for improving smartphone demand, pushing sales up 10 percent year-on-year. GfK forecasts smartphone demand to reach 84.4 million in 2017, a rise of eight percent year-on-year.
North America: Flagship device launches and operator promotions power 4Q
Following a dip in 3Q16, the market saw a turnaround in demand in 4Q16. This was driven by operator promotions and flagship devices launches, both coinciding with the holiday season. Smartphone demand hit 58 million units, an increase three percent year-on-year. GfK forecasts that tough competition between the carriers this year will drive marginal growth in smartphone demand of one percent year-on-year, totaling 193.4 million units in 2017.
Latin America: Argentina enjoys a stellar 2016, Brazil bounces back
Smartphone demand in the region reached 32.3 million units in 4Q16, building on the turnaround which started in 3Q16. This is up eight percent year-on-year. Brazil's improving political and economic situation heralded a gradual recovery in demand during 2016, with November posting the first year-on-year increase in demand of the year. Argentina demand remains strong, with 4Q16 up 38 percent year-on-year. In 2016, demand across the region is down one percent year-on-year. However, GfK has an optimistic outlook for 2017, as demand in Brazil continues to grow after two years of economic downturn.
Middle East and Africa: Growth continues to abate
Smartphone demand totaled 41.9 million units, up one percent year-on-year. This was weighed on by macroeconomic weakness in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Egypt. However, GfK forecasts year-on-year smartphone demand growth in the region to accelerate in 2017, helped by expected economic improvements.
China: The spread of 4G powers rising demand
In China, smartphone demand totaled 118.9 million units in 4Q16, up 12 percent year-on-year. The 4G smartphone user base hit 57 percent by the end of the year, driven by operator subsidies. Having penetrated the highly populated urban areas, 4G is now expanding to smaller cities and rural areas, as 2G and 3G users are encouraged to upgrade. GfK expects four percent year-on-year growth in 2017, bringing sales to 467.9 million units.
Developed Asia: South Korea drives growth in a saturated region
Overall smartphone demand totaled 20.5 million units in 4Q16, up four percent year-on-year. South Korea saw impressive growth of 17 percent year-on-year, helped by increasing demand for mid-range smartphones. However, like Western Europe and North America, the region is saturated and GfK expects smartphone demand to fall two percent year-on-year in 2017 to sales of 72 million.
Emerging Asia: India and Bangladesh drive growth in the region
Smartphone demand in the region totaled 56.8 million units, up seven percent year-on-year, a slight slowdown from 3Q16. Demand in India grew five percent year-on-year, with strong Diwali sales in October partially offsetting the negative impact of demonetization. GfK has a positive outlook for the region for 2017, with smartphone demand expected to grow nine percent year-on-year, reaching 229.4 million units. Bangladesh's projected growth of 28 percent year-on-year, added to India's rise of nine percent year-on-year, provides a major contribution to this forecast figure.
Smartphone sales 2016 vs. 2015
Units sold (in mil.) Sales value (in billion USD)
2015 2016 Y/Y 2015 2016 Y/Y
sales sales change sales sales change
Western Europe 135.4 131.6 -3% 52.9 53.6 1%
Central and Eastern Europe 71.5 78.5 10% 14.5 17.1 18%
North America 191.0 191.3 0% 72.1 71.8 0%
Latin America 108.4 107.1 -1% 26.8 31.7 18%
Middle East & Africa 157.5 165.5 5% 40.4 41.8 3%
China 385.3 450.1 17% 116.2 133.6 15%
Developed Asia 73.4 73.8 1% 43.0 45.3 5%
Emerging Asia 197.9 210.2 6% 32.2 34.1 6%
Global 1,320.5 1,408 6.6% 398.1 428.9 7.7%
Source: GfK Point of Sales (POS) measurement data in 90+ markets for calendar years 2015 and 2016.
Arndt Polifke, Global Director of telecom research at GfK, comments, "There is no other technology product that is as intensively used by consumers as the smartphone. As a result, smartphone demand remains stable even in saturated markets. Spurred on by the impressive range of exciting innovations, such as virtual reality, artificial intelligence, smart home functionality, mobile payments and mobile health, smartphones are going to gain further relevance for consumers in developed markets. On top of this, developing regions such as the Middle East/Africa and Emerging Asia have yet to mature and as such still have significant potential for growth. These two factors lead to a solid growth outlook for smartphone demand in 2017."
This release is based on final GfK Point of Sales data for October and November, and December estimates based on preliminary data. For more information, please visit http://www.gfk.com or follow GfK on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GfK