Some Glimmers of Optimism on the Economy

Current job market still seen as bad, but even small signs of hope for jobs in the future

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Feb 01, 2011, 12:09 ET

NEW YORK, Feb. 1, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- There is a sense of optimism returning to the American people. They are feeling better about President Obama, the direction of the country and, albeit to a lesser degree, Congress. And, it seems they are also feeling slightly better about the economy. One-third of Americans (33%) give President Obama positive ratings on his handling of the economy while two-thirds (67%) give him negative ratings. In December, three in ten U.S. adults (30%) gave the President positive ratings and 70% gave him negative marks on the economy.

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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,566 adults surveyed online between January 17 and 24, 2011 by Harris Interactive. This survey was conducted before the President delivered his State of the Union address.

Looking back as well as forward

Compared to last year, Americans feel slightly more secure about their financial situation. One-quarter (23%) say they feel more secure now, 37% say they feel the same as last year and just under two in five (38%) feel less secure about their financial situation. Last year, when compared to the previous year, less than one in five (19%) felt more secure and over two in five (42%) felt less secure.

Looking ahead, over one-quarter of Americans (27%) say they expect their own household finances to be better in the next six months and the same number (27%) expect them to be worse while 46% say they will be the same. In October, 22% of U.S. adults thought their finances would be better, half (49%) thought they would be the same and 29% felt they would be worse.

Savings

One of the stories about this financial crisis has been about savings. Some say people — even those who may not have been laid off — have been building nest eggs to prepare for the worst. But, that may not be true. While one-quarter of Americans (25%) say they are saving more than they were in 2008 before the downturn in the economy, one-third (35%) are saving the same amount and two in five (40%) are saving less than they were. When compared to one year ago, one in five (21%) are saving more, two in five (42%) are saving the same amount and 37% are saving less. If the economy is getting better, maybe the savings are happening more recently? Well, compared to three months ago, over half of Americans (53%) are saving the same amount, 16% are saving more and three in ten (31%) are saving less.

The job market

The one area where optimism seems to not have returned is the job market. Almost two-thirds of Americans (65%) say the current job market in their region of the country is bad, up from 63% who said this in December. One in five (22%) say it is neither good nor bad and 13% say it is good; the same number of Americans who said it was good in December. The Midwest region seems to be in the worst shape as just 9% of Midwesterners say the job market in their region is good while 72% say it is bad. Easterners seem to be better off as almost one in five of them (18%) say the job market in their region is good and three in five (61%) say it is bad.

But there is a glimmer of hope. Three in ten Americans (31%) say they believe the job market in their region will be better in six months while half (51%) say it will stay the same and 18% say it will be worse. In December, one-quarter of U.S. adults (25%) said the job market would be better in six months while 22% believed it would be worse.

So What?

This is the one area where President Obama needs the optimism to hold. If current feelings on economic conditions continue to improve, he will finally be able to move on to the other things on his agenda. If, however, they take a step backwards, not only will the rest of his agenda become in jeopardy, so will his re-election chances.

TABLE 1 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING ON THE ECONOMY - TREND "Now, turning to something different, how would you rate the overall job that President Barack Obama is doing on the economy?" Base: All adults
	2009
	March	April	May	June	Aug	Sept	Nov	Dec
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE (NET)	47	49	46	43	39	40	34	36
Excellent	13	13	10	3	9	7	6	6
Pretty good	34	36	36	34	31	33	27	30
NEGATIVE (NET)	53	51	54	57	61	60	66	64
Only fair	30	27	30	27	25	27	30	30
Poor	23	24	24	30	36	33	37	34


	2010										2011
	Jan	March	April	May	June	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE (NET)	31	32	33	36	32	32	29	27	31	30	33
Excellent	5	5	6	6	5	6	5	5	5	5	7
Pretty good	25	27	27	30	27	26	24	22	26	25	26
NEGATIVE (NET)	69	68	67	64	68	68	71	73	69	70	67
Only fair	31	30	31	29	32	29	31	33	30	34	30
Poor	39	37	36	34	37	39	40	39	39	36	37
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 2A FINANCIAL SECURITY "Compared to last year, how secure do you feel about your financial situation?" Base: All adults
	Total	Political Affiliation			Generation
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Echo Boomers (18-34)	Gen. X (35-46)	Baby Boomers (47-65)	Matures (66+)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
MORE SECURE (NET)	23	11	37	18	33	18	20	20
Much more secure	7	2	13	4	13	3	5	5
Somewhat more secure	16	10	24	14	20	15	15	15
Same as last year	37	32	38	39	38	37	37	34
LESS SECURE (NET)	38	56	22	41	26	43	42	47
Somewhat less secure	20	26	13	23	13	22	23	23
Much less secure	18	29	9	18	13	20	19	23
Not sure	2	1	3	2	3	2	2	*
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding Note: * indicates less than 0.5%

TABLE 2B FINANCIAL SECURITY - TREND "Compared to last year, how secure do you feel about your financial situation?" Base: All adults
	2008	2009	2010	2011
	%	%	%	%
MORE SECURE (NET)	21	12	19	23
Much more secure	4	3	5	7
Somewhat more secure	17	9	14	16
Same as last year	34	30	36	37
LESS SECURE (NET)	38	56	42	38
Somewhat less secure	24	33	23	20
Much less secure	14	23	20	18
Not sure	7	3	2	2
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3 PERSONAL FINANCIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS - TREND "Thinking about your household's financial condition, do you expect it to be better or worse in the next 6 months?" Base: All adults
	2008				2009
	Feb	Mar	June	Nov	Jan	Mar	April	May	June	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
BETTER (NET)	39	33	40	24	20	20	23	25	21	24	23	23	18	19
Will remain the same	28	28	25	43	48	46	46	45	45	48	48	45	47	48
WORSE (NET)	34	39	36	33	32	35	31	30	33	28	29	31	35	33


	2010								2011
	Jan	Mar	April	May	June	Aug	Sept	Oct	Jan
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
BETTER (NET)	21	21	22	25	21	22	22	22	27
Will remain the same	49	47	50	47	52	52	50	49	46
WORSE (NET)	30	32	29	28	27	26	28	29	27
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 4 PERSONAL FINANCIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS – BY GENERATION AND POLITICAL PARTY "Thinking about your household's financial condition, do you expect it to be better or worse in the next 6 months?" Base: All adults
	Total	Generation				Political Party
	Total	Echo Boomers (18-34)	Gen X (35-46)	Baby Boomers (47-65)	Matures (66+)	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
BETTER (NET)	27	39	24	23	17	16	40	23
Will be much better	6	12	4	4	4	3	12	4
Will be somewhat better	21	27	20	19	13	13	28	20
Will remain the same	46	45	53	45	44	42	47	48
WORSE (NET)	27	16	23	33	39	42	13	29
Will be somewhat worse	18	12	14	22	29	29	10	20
Will be much worse	8	4	9	10	10	12	4	8
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

TABLE 5A COMPARING SAVINGS "Are you saving more or less now than you were...?" Base: All adults
	MORE (NET)	Much more	Somewhat more	Same	LESS (NET)	Somewhat less	Much less
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
In 2008 before the downturn in the economy	25	10	14	35	40	16	24
A year ago	21	7	14	42	37	17	20
Three months ago	16	5	11	53	31	14	17
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5B COMPARING SAVINGS - TREND "Are you saving more or less now than you were...?" Summary of those saying "more" Base: All adults
	2010	2011	Generation
	2010	2011	Echo Boomers (18-34)	Gen X (35-46)	Baby Boomers (47-65)	Matures (66+)
	%	%	%	%	%	%
In 2008 before the downturn in the economy	18	25	39	20	19	13
A year ago	NA	21	37	17	14	11
Three months ago	14	16	27	15	11	5
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates not asked that year

TABLE 6A RATING OF CURRENT JOB MARKET - TREND "How would you rate the current job market of your region of the nation?" Base: All adults
	2008		2009
	June	July	Jan	April	June	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
GOOD (NET)	28	30	6	12	9	8	10	10	8	9
Neither good nor bad	18	19	18	20	19	21	22	20	18	19
BAD (NET)	53	51	76	68	72	71	68	70	73	72


	2010										2011
	Jan	Mar.	April	May	June	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
GOOD (NET)	10	8	10	12	10	12	10	13	11	13	13
Neither good nor bad	20	18	21	20	25	22	21	21	23	24	22
BAD (NET)	70	73	70	68	66	66	69	66	66	63	65
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 6B RATING OF CURRENT JOB MARKET IN YOUR REGION – BY REGION "How would you rate the current job market of your region of the nation?" Base: All adults
	Total	Region
	Total	East	Midwest	South	West
	%	%	%	%	%
GOOD (NET)	13	18	9	15	10
Very good	4	12	2	1	2
Somewhat good	9	6	7	14	8
Neither good nor bad	22	20	19	23	23
BAD (NET)	65	61	72	61	67
Somewhat bad	37	39	37	36	35
Very bad	28	22	35	25	32
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5%

TABLE 7 EXPECTATIONS FOR JOB MARKET IN SIX MONTHS – TREND "How do you think that the job market in your region of the nation will change over the next 6 months?" Base: All adults
	Jan. 2009	April 2009	June 2009	Aug 2009	June 2010	Aug 2010	Sept 2010	Oct 2010	Nov 2010	Dec 2010	Jan 2011
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
BETTER (NET)	15	23	21	28	26	23	21	23	30	25	31
Will be much better	1	3	2	2	1	2	2	3	2	2	4
Will be somewhat better	14	20	19	26	25	21	19	20	28	23	26
Will remain the same	36	42	47	47	53	49	53	53	50	54	51
WORSE (NET)	49	36	32	25	21	27	26	24	21	22	18
Will be somewhat worse	36	29	24	19	15	22	20	18	15	16	13
Will be much worse	14	7	8	6	6	5	6	6	6	6	6
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding;

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between January 17 to 24, 2011 among 2,566 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J39369

Q705, 710, 715, 720, 725, 730

The Harris Poll® #12, February 1, 2011

By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.