Stakeholder Opinions: Vaccines in emerging markets (Latin America) - Opportunities in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina

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Stakeholder Opinions: Vaccines in emerging markets (Latin America) - Opportunities in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina

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Introduction

Over the past decade, vaccines have resurfaced as an attractive commercial proposition for Pharma. The developed world has been the initial focus of vaccine makers due to the better healthcare infrastructure and higher price levels. However, facing increasingly saturated markets in the West, companies are looking to expand into new geographies, such as Latin America's emerging markets.

Scope

*Strategic analysis of key domestic vaccine companies as well as the position of major international players

*Thorough assessment of the market environment for vaccines in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina

*Review of existing vaccine recommendations, coverage rates and promising future indications

*In-depth discussion of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for each market from a vaccine maker's perspective

Highlights

Striving to achieve self-sufficiency in vaccine supply, Brazil has created a strong, state-controlled vaccine industry. The requirement for technology transfer partnerships with domestic companies for international vaccine makers targeting the Brazilian public sector can facilitate market entry, but reduces the long-term market opportunity.

In the absence of a strong domestic vaccine industry, Mexico and Argentina heavily depend on vaccine imports. Partnerships with local developers and distributors can gain international players an advantage in market penetration and winning national tenders.

As a consequence of increasing wealth and growing awareness for vaccination, emerging private sector markets in all three countries offer a promising opportunity, particularly to manufacturers of novel, high-price vaccines which currently have small chances of being integrated into routine vaccination schedules.

Reasons to Purchase

*Review portfolios and deals for key domestic vaccine companies as well as the position of major international vaccine makers

*Gain insight into the market environment for vaccines through a review of demographic, economic and regulatory trends

*Understand challenges, unmet needs and future opportunities for vaccine makers targeting Brazil, Mexico and Argentina

Overview 1

Catalyst 1

Summary 1

About Datamonitor healthcare 2

About the Infectious Diseases pharmaceutical analysis team 2

Executive Summary 3

Scope of the analysis 3

Datamonitor insight into vaccines in emerging markets (Latin America) 3

Related reports 5

Upcoming reports 5

TABLE OF CONTENTS 6

1. Overview of the three main Latin American Emerging markets for vaccines 7

Key findings 7

Brazil and Mexico are promising potential markets for vaccine developers due to their large birth cohorts and growing population sizes 7

The increasing wealth in Latin America has led to the emergence of a promising private sector market for vaccines 8

There is a large unmet need for vaccines against endemic diseases in Latin America 10

Vaccination coverage and recommendations vary across the key emerging Latin American markets 11

There are significant differences between the vaccines markets of Brazil, Mexico and Argentina 13

2. Brazil 20

Key findings 20

General characteristics 21

Demographics 21

Economics 24

Healthcare expenditure and access 25

The Brazilian vaccines market 28

Historic development 28

Current market situation 30

Key stakeholders in Brazil's vaccination system 34

Existing recommendations, coverage, available vaccines 35

Vaccination recommendations 35

Vaccination coverage 39

Available vaccines 41

Regulatory process for vaccines 43

Key vaccine players in Brazil 44

General overview 44

Multinational corporations 46

GlaxoSmithKline 47

Sanofi Pasteur 48

Merck & Co, Wyeth/Pfizer, Novartis 49

Local vaccine players 49

Fiocruz/Bio-Manguinhos 51

Instituto Butantan 56

Key future target indications 58

SWOT analysis of Brazil as a target market for vaccine producers 60

Best strategy for market penetration 62

3. Mexico 64

Key findings 64

General characteristics 65

Demographics 66

Economics 68

Healthcare expenditure and access 69

The Mexican vaccines market 71

Historic development 71

Current market situation 72

Key stakeholders in Mexico's vaccination system 75

Existing recommendations, coverage, available vaccines 76

Vaccination recommendations 76

Vaccination coverage 78

Available vaccines 79

Regulatory process for vaccines 83

Key vaccine players in Mexico 84

General overview 84

Multinational corporations 84

Sanofi Pasteur 85

Novartis 85

Merck & Co 85

GlaxoSmithKline 85

Wyeth/Pfizer 85

Local vaccine players 85

Birmex 86

Key future target indications 87

SWOT analysis of Mexico as a target market for vaccine producers 88

Best strategy for market penetration 89

4. Argentina 91

Key findings 91

General characteristics 92

Demographics 93

Economics 95

Healthcare expenditure and access 96

The Argentinean vaccines market 98

Historic development 98

Current market situation 99

Key stakeholders in Argentina's vaccination system 100

Existing recommendations, coverage, available vaccines 100

Vaccination recommendations 100

Vaccination coverage 103

Available vaccines 104

Regulatory process for vaccines 107

Key vaccine players in Argentina 107

General overview 107

Multinational corporations 108

Sanofi Pasteur 108

GlaxoSmithKline 108

Novartis 109

Merck & Co 109

Wyeth/Pfizer 109

Local vaccine players 109

Key future target indications 111

SWOT analysis of Argentina as a target market for vaccine producers 112

Best strategy for market penetration 113

Bibliography 114

Journals 114

Websites 114

Appendix 121

Contributing experts 121

Conferences attended 121

Report methodology 121

About Datamonitor 122

About Datamonitor Healthcare 122

About the Infectious Diseases analysis team 123

Key therapy team members 124

Hedwig Kresse, Lead Analyst, Infectious Diseases 124

Disclaimer 126

List of Tables

Table 1: Overview: vaccines recommended as part of the national immunization schedules in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, 2009 12

Table 2: Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) revolving fund vaccine prices, 2009 17

Table 3: Brazil: key economic indicators, 2007-09 25

Table 4: Brazil: healthcare expenditure indicators, 2006 26

Table 5: Brazil: key health system indicators, 2006 27

Table 6: Brazil: top 10 causes of mortality, 2004 27

Table 7: Brazil: vaccination recommendations, 2009 38

Table 8: Brazil: administered vaccine doses by indication, 2005-09 42

Table 9: Brazil: position of the five key Western vaccine players, 2010 47

Table 10: Brazil: overview of key local vaccine players, 2010 50

Table 11: Fiocruz/Bio-Manguinhos: human vaccine portfolio overview, 2010 54

Table 12: Fiocruz/Bio-Manguinhos: key vaccine deals and alliances, 2010 55

Table 13: Instituto Butantan: human vaccine portfolio overview, 2010 57

Table 14: Instituto Butantan: key vaccine deals and alliances, 2010 57

Table 15: SWOT analysis of Brazil as vaccine market, 2010 62

Table 16: Mexico: key economic indicators, 2007-09 68

Table 17: Mexico: healthcare expenditure indicators, 2006 69

Table 18: Mexico: key health system indicators, 2004 70

Table 19: Mexico: top 10 causes of mortality, 2004 70

Table 20: Mexico: vaccination recommendations, 2009 78

Table 21: Mexico: authorized vaccines, November 2009 80

Table 22: Mexico: position of the five key Western vaccine players, 2010 84

Table 23: Birmex: human vaccine portfolio overview, 2010 86

Table 24: Birmex: key vaccine deals and alliances, 2010 87

Table 25: SWOT analysis of Mexico as vaccine market, 2010 89

Table 26: Argentina: key economic indicators, 2007-09 95

Table 27: Argentina: healthcare expenditure indicators, 2006 96

Table 28: Argentina: key health system indicators, 2004 97

Table 29: Argentina: top 10 causes of mortality, 2004 97

Table 30: Argentina: estimated number of vaccine doses distributed for key indications, 2010 99

Table 31: Argentina: vaccination recommendations, 2009 102

Table 32: Argentina: authorized vaccines, 2010 105

Table 33: Argentina: position of the five key Western vaccine players, 2010 108

Table 34: SWOT analysis of Argentina as vaccine market, 2010 113

List of Figures

Figure 1: Overview: total population size, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, the US and the five major EU markets, 1995-2020 7

Figure 2: Overview: birth cohort size, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, the US and the five major EU markets, 1995-2020 8

Figure 3: Overview: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, the US and the five major EU markets, 2007-09 9

Figure 4: Overview: healthcare spend per capita and private expenditure on health in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, the US and the five major EU markets, 2006 10

Figure 5: Overview: distribution of key endemic diseases in Latin America 11

Figure 6: Overview: coverage for key vaccinations in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, 2008 13

Figure 7: Market shares of key Western vaccine companies in Latin America, 2008 14

Figure 8: Overview: estimates of the market size for human vaccines in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, 2008/2009 15

Figure 9: National versus external vaccine financing, Latin America, 1987-2006 16

Figure 10: Overview: key domestic vaccine players in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, 2010 18

Figure 11: Overview: key vaccine market characteristics in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, 2010 19

Figure 12: Brazil: overview of the vaccine landscape, 2010 21

Figure 13: Brazil: population growth, 1995-2020 22

Figure 14: Brazil: population spread by age group, 2010 versus 2020 23

Figure 15: Brazil: mortality of children

Figure 16: Brazil: timeline of introduction of key vaccines into the public immunization schedule, 1973-2010 29

Figure 17: Brazil: Programa Nacional de Imunizações (PNI), vaccine purchase budget, 1995-2007 30

Figure 18: Brazil: vaccine imports by indication, 2005-09 33

Figure 19: Brazil: vaccine imports by country of origin, 2005-09 34

Figure 20: Brazil: vaccination schedule published by Ministério da Saúde , 2009 36

Figure 21: Brazil: vaccination schedule published by Associação Brasileira de Imunizações, 2009 37

Figure 22: Brazil: vaccination coverage, 2004-08 40

Figure 23: Brazil: administered vaccine doses by indication, 2005-09 41

Figure 24: Brazil: local vaccine production versus imports for public sector vaccines, 1996-2000 45

Figure 25: Brazil: contribution of multinational vaccine makers to product supply for private sector immunization, 2001 46

Figure 26: Brazil: Sanofi Pasteur net vaccine sales, 2005-09 48

Figure 27: Share of Fiocruz/Bio-Manguinhos among Brazilian vaccine suppliers for the National Immunization Program; 2001-07 51

Figure 28: Fiocruz/Bio-Manguinhos: vaccine sales 2001-07 52

Figure 29: Fiocruz/Bio-Manguinhos: exported doses of yellow fever vaccine, 2001-07 53

Figure 30: Brazil: key future target vaccine indications, 2010 59

Figure 31: Mexico: overview of the vaccine landscape, 2010 65

Figure 32: Mexico: population growth, 1995-2020 66

Figure 33: Mexico: population spread by age group, 2010 versus 2020 67

Figure 34: Mexico: mortality of children

Figure 35: Mexico: timeline of introduction of key vaccines into the public immunization schedule, 1951-2008 72

Figure 36: Mexico: applied vaccine doses by indication, 2007 74

Figure 37: Mexico: applied vaccine doses by indication and month, 2007 75

Figure 38: Mexico: applied vaccine doses by place of administration, 2007 76

Figure 39: Mexico: vaccination schedule, 2009 77

Figure 40: Mexico: vaccination coverage, 2004-08 79

Figure 41: Mexico: key future target vaccine indications, 2010 88

Figure 42: Argentina: overview of the vaccine landscape, 2010 92

Figure 43: Argentina: population growth, 1995-2020 93

Figure 44: Argentina: population spread by age group, 2010 versus 2020 94

Figure 45: Argentina: mortality of children

Figure 46: Argentina: timeline of introduction of key vaccines into the public immunization schedule 98

Figure 47: Argentina: vaccination schedule, 2009 101

Figure 48: Argentina: vaccination coverage, 2004-08 103

Figure 49: Argentina: vaccination coverage by region, 2007 104

Figure 50: Argentina: key future target vaccine indications, 2010 112

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