TechSci Research: Shaky BRICS Pave Way for Emerging Economies

02 May, 2016, 10:30 ET from TechSci Research

NEW YORK, May 2, 2016 /PRNewswire/ --

Leading Economies with Fastest Real GDP Annual Percentage Change, 2015 


   
                    Real GDP Growth
       Ethiopia          10.2
    Côte d'Ivoire         8.6
      Uzbekistan           8
        Ireland           7.8
         India            7.3

Source: IMF and TechSci Research 

According to TechSci Research, BRICS nations, which comprises of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, registered the fastest GDP growth during the first decade of the 21st century. However, economic slowdown in China, recession in Brazil and Russia, along with policy uncertainty in South Africa have created opportunities for other emerging nations to attract investments.

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TechSci Research depicts, Ethiopia, a low income Sub-Saharan African economy accounted for the fastest growth rate in world in 2015. Government of Ethiopia has made large public investments for improving the infrastructure of the country and eradicate poverty. However, due to lower participation from private sector, the GDP growth of the country is projected to decline to 7% in 2017.

Côte d'Ivoire, another Sub-Saharan African economy has registered 8.6% growth in 2015 on the back of growing investments and rising consumer confidence. The country is projected to continue to exhibit strong growth over the next two years and grow at 8% in 2017.

TechSci Research highlighted, Uzbekistan, growing at 8%, recorded the third fastest growth in 2015 on account of tactful management of the hydrocarbon resources owned by the country. However, the recession in Russia is expected to pose negative implications on the growth of the economy, owing to which, the country is projected to grow at 5.5% in 2017.

Real GDP growth of Ireland was pegged at 7.8% in 2015 on account of elimination of major tariffs, which is projected to boost the productivity of the country. However, due to sluggish growth of the European Union, GDP growth of Ireland is projected to decline to 3.6% in 2017.

TechSci Research depicts, the Indian economy has continued to exhibit steady growth since 2012 and registered 7.3% growth in 2015. The GDP of India is expected to maintain its robust growth and clock at 7.5% in 2017. At the current rate, GDP of India is expected to exceed the combined GDP of Germany and Japan by 2019.

Asia-Pacific Real GDP Annual Percent Change, 2011-2017F 


   
             China  India  Vietnam  Philippines
      2011    9.5    6.6     6.2        3.7
      2012    7.7    5.6     5.2        6.7
      2013    7.7    6.6     5.4        7.1
      2014    7.3    7.2      6         6.1
      2015    6.9    7.3     6.7        5.8
      2016    6.5    7.5     6.3         6
      2017    6.2    7.5     6.2        6.2

Source: IMF and TechSci Research 

Despite slowdown in the manufacturing sector and low investments, China is expected to remain one of the fastest growing economies in Asia-Pacific region on account of steady growth in the services sector. China, being the largest economy of the region, is expected to spearhead the economic growth of the entire Asia-Pacific region.

According to TechSci Research, in the Asia-Pacific region, India is expected to exhibit the fastest economic growth over the next two years on the back steady growth in private consumption. In 2015, the country overtook China in terms of growth rate of real GDP and has emerged as the fastest growing economy in Asia-Pacific. Tight monetary policy implemented by the Government of India is expected to assist the country in realising the 5% inflation target by mid-2017. Additionally, plummeting oil prices are further aiding to the growth of the Indian economy, which is a net importer of crude oil.

Vietnam is another bright spot in the Asia-Pacific economy. Reforming policies by the Government have helped the country to reduce poverty and improve stability. Oil price windfall is expected to strengthen the economy of Vietnam and assist in reducing inflation. Vietnam is expected to exhibit growth with more than 6% through 2017.

After Vietnam, Philippines is projected to be the second fastest growing nation among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-5). Improving public investment efficiency is expected to be the chief driver for high GDP growth of the country. Steady growth in public construction activities and strong pickup in private investment have successfully offset the ill effects of international financial volatility on Philippines.

Economy of Côte d'Ivoire, which began recuperating in 2012, is poised to exhibit the fastest growth in the Sub-Saharan region through 2017. Sustained growth of investments in the private sector coupled with rising consumer and business confidence are major contributors to the favourable economic growth of the country.

Sub-Saharan Real GDP Annual Percent Change, 2011-2017F 


   
                                                                        Côte
         Cameroon Uganda Tanzania Senegal Mozambique Ethiopia Djibouti d'Ivoire
    2011   4.1     6.8     7.9      1.9      7.1       11.4     7.3      -4.4
    2012   4.6     2.6     5.1      4.5      7.2       8.7      4.8      10.7
    2013   5.6      4      7.3      3.6      7.1       9.9       5        8.7
    2014   5.9     4.9      7       4.3      7.4       10.3      6        7.9
    2015   5.9      5       7       6.5      6.3       10.2     6.5       8.6
    2016   4.9     5.3     6.9      6.6       6        4.5      6.5       8.5
    2017   4.6     5.7     6.8      6.8      6.8        7        7         8

Source: IMF and TechSci Research 

Increased spending on infrastructure is the chief contributor to the healthy growth of the real GDP of Djibouti. The country is poised to grow at 7% in 2017 on account of increasing investments and strengthening banking supervision.

Sustained public investments aided Ethiopia to grow at 10.2% in 2015. Reduced poverty and controlled inflation are expected to steer the economy of Ethiopia forward through 2017. However, low participation of private sector is expected to curtail the growth of the Ethiopian economy.  

TechSci Research portrays, Mozambique, a low income Sub-Sahara African economy, has been progressing at a steady rate since 2011. In 2017, the country is expected to register a growth rate of 6.8%. The real GDP growth rate of Mozambique is expected to reach 38.9% by 2021 on account of commissioning of gas processing facilities in the Northern part of the country, which is projected to stimulate large investments in the country.

TechSci Research highlighted, progressive growth of infrastructure, including construction of power dam, highways and an oil refinery, is expected to bolster the economic growth in Uganda through 2017. Against the backdrop of low crude oil prices, the downstream sector of the country is projected to exhibit promising growth. Additionally, the central bank of the country has slashed lending rates in order to promote private sector borrowing.

Buoyed by the strong macroeconomic growth and expanding agricultural sector, real GDP growth of Senegal is pegged at 6.8% in 2017. Additionally, supportive economic plans by the Government would encourage the economic growth of the country.

Despite depreciating exchange rate, the real GDP growth of Tanzania has remained strong. Improving growth across various sector, including construction, transportation and finance, is expected to steer the growth of Tanzanian economy over the course of next two years.

GDP growth of Cameroon clocked at around 6% in 2014 and 2015 on account of impressive growth in public sectors. Low inflation is expected to continue to benefit the economy.

According to TechSci Research Analysis, Dominican Republic, which is one of the most visited tourist destination in the Caribbean, generates majority of the income through tourism and construction industry. The country has witnessed large FDI inflows over the last five years, which is expected to strengthen the economy further.

Americas Real GDP Annual Percent Change, 2011-2017F 


   
                         Dominican
              Peru       Republic
      2011     6.5          2.8
      2012      6           2.6
      2013     5.9          4.8
      2014     2.4          7.3
      2015     3.3           7
      2016     3.7          5.4
      2017     4.1          4.5

Source: IMF and TechSci Research 

Growing middle class population and market friendly policies established by the Government of Peru has resulted in augmented growth of the economy since 2014. The Peruvian economy, which relies largely on mining activities, is projected to register 4.1% growth in 2017 on account of supportive government measures.

Middle East and North African Economies (Including Afghanistan and Pakistan) Real GDP Annual Percent Change, 2011-2017F 


   
                   Egypt     Pakistan      Iran        Iraq
       2011         1.8         3.6         3.7         7.5
       2012         2.2         3.8        -6.6        13.9
       2013         2.1         3.7        -1.9         6.6
       2014         2.2          4          4.3        -2.1
       2015         4.2         4.2          0          2.4
       2016         3.3         4.5          4          7.2
       2017         4.3         4.7         3.7         3.3

Source: IMF and TechSci Research 

According to Samarth Gupta, Research Analyst with TechSci Research, in the Middle East and North Africa region, Iraq is expected to register the fastest real GDP growth in 2016 on account of steady growth in oil production. Financial monitoring by the International Monetary Fund would is expected to further accelerate the growth of the economy in the short term.

"Slump in oil prices, improving energy infrastructure, along with rising credit growth is expected to steer the economy of Pakistan forward through 2017 despite weakening external environment. Additionally, investments pertaining to China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would further assist the economic growth of the country", said Mr. Karan Chechi, Research Director with TechSci Research.

Removal of international sanctions imposed on Iran is expected to bolster the growth of the economy, which registered 0% growth in 2015. Expanding oil production coupled with growing exports would enable Iran to exhibit steady growth over the course of next two years. Rising consumer spending coupled with falling crude oil prices is responsible for the growth in the real GDP of Egypt. However, rising unemployment is expected to result in a slight decline in the growth rate in 2016.

European Economies Real GDP Annual Percent Change, 2011-2017F 


   
                     Romania        Ireland
        2011           1.1            2.6
        2012           0.6            0.2
        2013           3.5            1.4
        2014           2.8            5.2
        2015           3.7            7.8
        2016           4.2             5
        2017           3.6            3.6

Source: IMF and TechSci Research 

Liberalization of international trade and elimination tariffs is expected to boost productivity in Ireland, as a result of which, a positive outlook has been forecast for the growth of Irish economy through 2017. In particular, the strong growth of the pharmaceutical sector of the country is expected to generate large gains.

TechSci Research highlighted, real GDP of Romania is projected to vault to 4.2% in 2016 on account of the expanding industrial sector. Romania, which is included under Emerging and Developing Europe economies, is projected to register 3.6% growth in 2017 as compared to 3% growth projected to for the entire Emerging and Developing Europe economies.


   
                Georgia  Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
       2011       7.2        14.7        8.3
       2012       6.4        11.1        8.1
       2013       3.4        10.2         8
       2014       4.6        10.3        8.1
       2015       2.8        6.5          8
       2016       2.5        4.3          5
       2017       4.5        4.5         5.5

Commonwealth of Independent State Economies Real GDP Annual Percent Change, 2011-2017F 

Source: IMF and TechSci Research 

Rising public investments by the Government of Uzbekistan have successfully shielded the economy from the negative consequences global financial slowdown experienced by the neighbouring economies. Reorientation of natural gas exports from Russia to China, which provides better compensation, has enabled Uzbekistan to tackle the lower hydrocarbon prices.

Planned development of oil and has sector by the Government of Turkmenistan has benefited the country in manging its hydrocarbon resources. The country controls the fourth largest supply of natural gas in the world. Despite suspension of natural gas contract from Russia, Turkmenistan is expected to yield profitable returns through sale of natural gas to China and Iran.

According to TechSci Research, recession in Russia is expected to have a negative impact on CIS countries, including Georgia. As a result, the real GDP growth of the country is expected to decline to 2.5% in 2016. However, the country is projected to register 4.5% growth rate in 2017 on account of corrective measures taken by the Government of Georgia.

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