The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Inched Up in January

Index Increased, But at a Slower Pace

Feb 08, 2016, 10:00 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Feb. 8, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in January. The index now stands at 128.93, up from 128.71 in December (a downward revision). The change represents a 1.9 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The Employment Trends Index rose for the second month in a row, reducing the likelihood of further slowing in employment growth," said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. "However, the temporary help industry component declined sharply in January, and because it is one of the best leading indicators of employment growth, we will monitor it closely in the coming months."

January's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from five of the eight components. In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get," Industrial Production, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, and the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

  • Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
  • Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
  • Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
  • Job Openings (BLS)**
  • Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
  • Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

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SOURCE The Conference Board



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