RIO DE JANEIRO, March 17, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 1.4 percent in February. The index now stands at 124.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent decline in January and a 0.3 percent increase in December. Only one of the eight components contributed positively to the index in February.
Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board, said, "The Leading Economic Index declined in February for the second consecutive month, and its six-month growth has fallen back to negative territory. Despite the sharp improvement in the fourth quarter GDP, the persistent and broad-based weakness in the LEI suggests that that pace of growth is unlikely to last through the first half of this year."
Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE, added, "The deterioration of the Brazilian Leading Economic Index in February reflects growing concerns about deteriorating trade balance and the negative impact of the drought on food and energy prices. The modest growth in the Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current economic activity, coupled with the widespread weakness in the LEI suggests there is little sign of an improvement in economic conditions in Brazil compared to last year."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in February to 129.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in January and a 0.6 percent decline in December. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in February.
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:
Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getúlio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
2013 2014 6-month
Leading Economic Index 126.4 125.4 r 124.9 p
Coincident Economic Index 128.0 129.1 p 129.2 p
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
SOURCE The Conference Board