RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct. 17, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.5 percent in September. The index now stands at 125.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in August and a 2.2 percent decrease in July. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in September.
"The small increase in the LEI for Brazil reinforces the likelihood of a weak recovery in economic activity during the last quarter of 2013," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "The extent of this recovery remains uncertain, however, given high volatility in international markets and low confidence among Brazilian managers and entrepreneurs."
Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board, added, "The LEI for Brazil increased again this month due to improvements in consumer, service, and financial sector sentiment as well as exports. Nevertheless, manufacturing and consumption are still weak and Brazil's economy remains unbalanced — all signs that growth is still underperforming relative to the economy's potential."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in September to 129.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in August and a 0.1 percent increase in July. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in September.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas
TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:
Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
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The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil's official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
SOURCE The Conference Board