The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Increased in November

Dec 15, 2015, 08:00 ET from The Conference Board

RIO DE JANEIRO, Dec. 15, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.8 percent in November. The index now stands at 86.9 (2010 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in October and a 2.2 percent decline in September. The services, consumers, and manufacturing sector surveys, the consumer durable goods production index, the exports volume index, and the terms of trade index contributed positively to the index in November.

"Despite both the Brazil LEI and CEI increasing in November, their six-month growth rates remain in contractionary territory," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "While it's too early to say the leading indicators are reversing their downward trend, the increasing political uncertainty imposes a substantial challenge to economic policy, all of which are hampering the likelihood of a recovery in the coming months."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent to 100.2 (2010 = 100) in November, following a 0.6 percent decline in both October and September. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in November.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas 

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, India, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE) 
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasilieiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

NOTE: Next month's data release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

Beginning in January, we will no longer issue monthly Technical Notes and related documents for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI). We will post the data tables on the website and the release time will be 10:00 AM ET.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
www.conferenceboard.org

ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyze, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
www.fgv.br/ibre  

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes













2015




6-month



Sep


Oct


Nov


May to Nov











Leading Economic Index

85.4

r

86.2

r

86.9

p



  Percent Change

-2.2

r

0.9

r

0.8

p

-3.3


  Diffusion

12.5


43.8


81.3


12.5











Coincident Economic Index

100.7

r

100.1

p

100.2

p



  Percent Change

-0.6

r

-0.6

p

0.1

p

-2.5


  Diffusion

16.7


66.7


58.3


16.7











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised





Indexes equal 100 in 2010









Sources:  The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE               All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board



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