2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased Again in August

BEIJING, Sept. 16, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.7 percent in August. The index stands at 269.3 (2004 = 100), following a 1.4 percent increase in July and a 0.8 percent increase in June. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "The LEI increased in August, but its growth has slowed as real estate activity slumped markedly. While recent improvements in China's industry and retail sectors signal some stabilization in current conditions, the easing of the LEI's six-month growth rate, coupled with downside risks from the real estate sector, suggest the pace of economic growth will remain muted in the coming months."  

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.2 percent in August to 248.7 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in July and a 1.1 percent increase in June. All five components contributed positively to the index in August.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2013

6-month


Jun

 Jul

 Aug

 Feb to Aug

Leading Economic index (LEI) 

263.6 p

267.4 p

 269.3 p


Percent Change 

0.8 p

 1.4 p

0.7 p 

4.2

Diffusion

75.0

91.7

75.0

50.0






Coincident Economic Index (CEI) 

243.0 r

245.7 p

 248.7 p


Percent Change

1.1

1.1 p 

1.2 p

5.0

Diffusion

100.0

80.0

100.0

80.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised


Indexes equal 100 in 2004




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