2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increases in February

BEIJING, March 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.3 percent in February to 257.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent increase in January and a 0.4 percent increase in December. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in February.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "The Leading Economic Index for China maintained its pace in February, a sign that the current economic expansion should continue in the near-term. Current economic conditions strengthened considerably compared to previous months. However, the six-month average growth rate of the LEI has weakened. The drivers of growth remain fragile, and recent improvements in consumer expectations are not likely sustainable in the face of rising inflation. Investment activity, which is also underpinning the current growth rebound, is heavily credit dependent and could be affected by changes in monetary policy in the wake of the leadership transition."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 2.9 percent in February to 234.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.8 percent decline in January and a 1.1 percent increase in December. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in February.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China

5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics) 

Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2012

 

2013

6-month


Dec

Jan

Feb

Aug to Feb









Leading Economic index (LEI)  

251.0

p  

254.3

p  

257.5

p


   Percent Change  

0.4

p  

1.3

p  

1.3

p  

6.2

   Diffusion  

50.0


66.7


83.3


83.3









Coincident Economic Index (CEI)  

232.5

r  

228.3

p  

234.9

p


   Percent Change  

1.1


-1.8

p  

2.9

p  

5.2

   Diffusion  

100.0


60.0


80.0


100.0









n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board



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