The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia Declined

17 Nov, 2015, 18:00 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Nov. 17, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia declined 0.1 percent in September to 103.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in August, and a 0.4 percent increase in July.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in September to 109.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board LEI for Australia decreased in September and has declined in six of the last seven months. As a result, the six-month growth rate of the LEI has remained in negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Australia continues to increase, but its six-month growth rate has moderated in recent months. The downward trend in the LEI combined with the slower growth rate of the CEI suggests that the current economic expansion will continue at a modest pace in the near-term, but downside risks may persist.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include:

Yield Spread, 10 year minus Policy Rate 
Share Prices, All Ordinaries 
Money Supply, M3 
Rural Goods Exports 
Sales to Inventory Ratio 
Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corporations 
Building Approvals

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=7

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2015


6-month


Jul


Aug


Sep


Mar to Sep










Leading Economic Index

104.0

p

103.6

p

103.5

p



  Percent Change

0.4

p

-0.4

p

-0.1

p

-0.9


  Diffusion

71.4


64.3


64.3


42.9











Coincident Economic Index

108.6

p

109.0

p

109.2

p



  Percent Change

0.3

p

0.4

p

0.2

p

1.1


  Diffusion

87.5


100.0


87.5


75.0











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised






Indexes equal 100 in 2010









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SOURCE The Conference Board



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