The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France Declines

Sep 21, 2011, 04:00 ET from The Conference Board

BRUSSELS, Sept. 21, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France decreased 0.2 percent in July to 115.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in June, and a 0.3 percent decrease in May.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in July to 105.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in June, and a 0.2 percent increase in May.

The Conference Board LEI for France declined in July (second decrease in three months), amid fairly widespread weaknesses among its components. In addition, the LEI's six-month growth rate has been relatively steady since late 2009, fluctuating within a range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI has been on a rising trend since reaching its most recent trough in August 2009, though it is still 1.3 percent below its most recent peak in February 2008. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should expand, albeit moderately, in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for France include:

Yield Spread, 10 year minus Day-Day Loan
Stock Price SBF 250 Index
Building Permits, residential
New Unemployment Claims
Industrial New Orders
Production Expectations
Ratio Deflator of Manufacturing Value Added to Unit Labor Cost

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=3

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes


2011

6-month


May

Jun

Jul

Jan to Jul

Leading Economic Index (LEI)

114.5 p

115.2 p

115.0 p


 Percent Change

-0.3 p

0.6 p

-0.2 p

2.2 p

 Diffusion

21.4

50.0

35.7

42.9






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

105.0 r

105.1 p

105.2 p


 Percent Change

0.2

0.1 p

0.1 p

0.3 p

 Diffusion

75.0

75.0

75.0

75.0


n.a. Not available       p Preliminary        r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

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SOURCE The Conference Board



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