The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Declined Again

Nov 23, 2015, 09:30 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Nov. 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 1.0 percent in September to 106.9 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, fell 0.1 percent in September to at 105.8 (2010 = 100), following no change in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.

The LEI has declined in five of the past six months and as a result, its six-month growth rate has fallen deeper into negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI declined in September and its six-month growth has moderated in recent months. The persistent declines in the LEI and the weaknesses among its components suggest that the economic activity will not pick up any momentum in the near-term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods 
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month 
Change in Inventories 
Gross Enterprise and Property Income 
Stock Prices 
New Orders, Residential Construction 
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

 

Summary Table of Composite Indexes




2015




6-month


Jul


Aug


Sep


Mar to Sep










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

108.4

p

108.0

p

106.9

p



  Percent Change

0.3

p

-0.4

p

-1.0

p

-1.8

p

  Diffusion

71.4


42.9


42.9


42.9











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

105.9

r

105.9

r

105.8




  Percent Change

0.3


0.0


-0.1


0.4


  Diffusion

75.0


50.0


37.5


75.0











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised






Indexes equal 100 in 2010









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SOURCE The Conference Board



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