The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increased Slightly

Dec 18, 2015, 09:54 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Dec. 18, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- NOTE: Next month's data release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

Beginning in January, we will no longer issue monthly Technical Notes and related documents for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany. We will post the data tables on the website and the release time will continue to be 9:30 AM ET.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.2 percent in October to 108.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in September, and a 0.4 percent decline in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October to 105.9 (2010 = 100), following 0.1 percent decline in September, and no change in August.

Despite the small increase in October, the LEI has declined in four out of the last six months and, as a result, its six-month growth rate remains negative. Meanwhile, the CEI has increased modestly over the same time period and its six-month growth has slowed. Taken together, the composite indexes suggest that the pace of economic activity is unlikely to accelerate going into 2016.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods  
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month  
Change in Inventories  
Gross Enterprise and Property Income  
Stock Prices  
New Orders, Residential Construction  
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

 

Summary Table of Composite Indexes




2015




6-month


Aug


Sep


Oct


Apr to Oct










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

108.2

r

107.8

p

108.0

p



  Percent Change

-0.4


-0.4

p

0.2

p

-0.6

p

  Diffusion

42.9


57.1


71.4


57.1











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

105.9


105.8


105.9




  Percent Change

0.0


-0.1


0.1


0.3


  Diffusion

50.0


37.5


50.0


50.0











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised






Indexes equal 100 in 2010









Source:  The Conference Board               All Rights Reserved




 

 

SOURCE The Conference Board



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