The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

BRUSSELS, April 24, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.3 percent in February to 103.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in January, and a 0.5 percent increase in December.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in February to 107.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in January, and a 0.2 percent decline in December.

The LEI for Germany continued to increase in February, and for the first time since May 2012 its six-month growth rate is in positive territory. Meanwhile, the CEI for Germany improved for the second consecutive month, after having declined for most of the second half of 2012. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy could start growing again in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

 

Summary Table of Composite Indexes


2012

2013

 6-month


Dec

Jan

Feb

 Aug to Feb

Leading Economic Index (LEI)

103.0 p

103.4 p

103.7 p


Percent Change

   0.5 p

   0.4 p

   0.3 p

0.5 p

Diffusion

71.4

71.4

71.4

85.7






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

106.7

107.0 r

107.1


Percent Change

-0.2

   0.3 r

0.1

-0.3

Diffusion

50.0

75.0

50.0

50.0






n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised



Indexes equal 100 in 2004





Source: The Conference Board

All Rights Reserved


SOURCE The Conference Board



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