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2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

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BRUSSELS, Feb. 21, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.1 percent in December to 108.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in November and a 0.1 percent increase in October. 

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.2 percent in December to 107.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in November, and a 0.2 percent decline in October.

The LEI for Germany has been on an upward trend throughout 2013, though its six-month growth rate has recently moderated. At the same time, the CEI showed a slight increase in 2013, and as a result its six-month growth rate has also eased. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy will continue expanding at a slow pace in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

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Summary Table of Composite Indexes





2013

 6-month


   Oct  

 Nov

  Dec

    Jun to Dec

Leading Economic Index (LEI)  

  107.6 p

108.1 p

   108.2 p


  Percent Change

   0.1 p

0.5 p

    0.1 p

   1.2 p

  Diffusion 

42.9

78.6

57.1

71.4






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

    107.4 r 

107.8

107.6


  Percent Change 

  -0.2 r

0.4 r

-0.2

0.0

  Diffusion 

25.0

100.0

25.0

50.0






n.a. Not available   p Preliminary   r Revised





Indexes equal 100 in 2004





Source: The Conference Board     All Rights Reserved  



 

SOURCE The Conference Board



RELATED LINKS
http://www.conference-board.org

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