The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Declined

NEW YORK, Feb. 11, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 0.3 percent in December to 101.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in November and a 0.6 percent increase in October.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in December, remaining at 96.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November, and a 0.2 percent increase in October.

The Conference Board LEI fell slightly in December and its rate of growth has been slowing in recent months. Meanwhile, the CEI remained unchanged but its six-month growth rate has improved. Taken together, the recent slowing growth in the LEI, coupled with moderate growth in the coincident economic index, suggests that the current expansion in economic activity is unlikely to gain momentum in the upcoming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits 
Dwelling Units Started 
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2013

6-month


Oct

Nov

Dec

Jun to Dec

Leading Economic Index (LEI)

100.9

p  

101.3

p  

101.0

p



   Percent Change  

0.6

p  

0.4

p  

-0.3

p  

2.7

p

   Diffusion  

85.0


85.0


65.0


100.0











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)  

96.4

p  

96.5

p  

96.5

p



   Percent Change  

0.2

p  

0.1

p  

0.0

p  

0.4

p

   Diffusion  

100.0


50.0


37.5


50.0











n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board     All Rights Reserved

 

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

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