The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Declined

NEW YORK, March 11, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 0.7 percent in January to 100.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December and a 0.5 percent increase in November.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in January to 97.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in December, and a 0.1 percent increase in November.

The Conference Board LEI declined again in January and its six-month rate of growth has slowed considerably in recent months. Meanwhile, the CEI has been improving, and its six-month growth rate has increased moderately over the past several months. Taken together, the slower growth in the LEI, coupled with moderate growth in the CEI, suggest that the current expansion in economic activity is quite unlikely to accelerate in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes




2013

6-month



Nov

Dec

Jan

Jul to Jan

Leading Economic Index (LEI)


101.3

101.1 p

100.4 p


  Percent Change


0.5 r

-0.2 p

-0.7 p

1.6 p

  Diffusion


85.0

80.0

50.0

90.0







Coincident Economic Index (CEI)


96.7 r

96.8 p

97.1p


  Percent Change


0.1 r

0.1 p

0.3p

0.9 p

  Diffusion


50.0

62.5

75.0

75.0







n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board        All Rights Reserved

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

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