The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Declines

Dec 07, 2010, 20:00 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Dec. 7, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 1.5 percent in October to 98.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in September, and no change in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.8 percent in October to 97.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in September, and a 0.3 percent decline in August.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan has continued to fall, and its six-month growth rate has become negative amid widespread weakness among its components. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Japan has also been decreasing, with its six-month growth rate turning negative recently. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity may weaken further in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:


Operating Profits

Dwelling Units Started

Business Failures

Index of Overtime Worked

Stock Prices (TOPIX)

Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity

Tankan Business Conditions Survey

Money Supply

Yield Spread

New Orders for Machinery and Construction



For more information including full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2010


6-month


Aug

Sep

Oct

Apr to Oct

Leading Economic index (LEI)

100.8

r

100.2

p

98.7

p



Percent Change

0.0

r

-0.6

p

-1.5

p

-4.5

p

Diffusion

55.0


40.0


35.0


40.0











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

98.4

r

98.1

p

97.3

p



Percent Change

-0.3

r

-0.3

p

-0.8

p

-1.8

p

Diffusion

37.5


25.0


0.0


25.0


n.a. Not available   p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board     All Rights Reserved



SOURCE The Conference Board



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