2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Increased

NEW YORK, Dec. 10, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan increased 0.2 percent in October to 100.6 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent increase in September and no change in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October to 96.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in September, and a 0.2 percent decline in August.

The improvements in The Conference Board LEI for Japan have been persistent throughout 2013, but the rate at which the index is increasing has fallen off in the second half of this year. Taken together, the slowing pace of improvements in the LEI, coupled with slightly negative growth in the CEI in the last six months, suggest that the current expansion in economic activity is unlikely to pick up during the first half of 2014.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan  
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits 
Dwelling Units Started 
Business Failures 
Index of Overtime Worked 
Stock Prices (TOPIX) 
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity 
Tankan Business Conditions Survey 
Money Supply 
Yield Spread 
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board  
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

 

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

 


2013


6-month


Aug

 Sep

Oct

Apr to Oct










Leading Economic index (LEI)

99.1

r

100.4

p

100.6

p



   Percent Change

0.0

r

1.3

p

0.2

p

3.5

p

   Diffusion

60.0


100.0


75.0


100.0











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

96.5

r

96.7

p

96.8

p



   Percent Change

-0.2

r

0.2

p

0.1

p

-0.1

p

   Diffusion

12.5


75.0


87.5


50.0











n.a. Not available   p Preliminary   r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board    All Rights Reserved


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