The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Increases

NEW YORK, March 12, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan increased 0.7 percent in January to 92.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December, and a 0.1 percent decline in November.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.5 percent in January to 96.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in December, and a 0.2 percent decline in November.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan increased in January after a small gain in December.  Although its six-month growth rate remains negative, the decline has slowed throughout most of 2012. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Japan increased in January after declining for nine of the last twelve months. Moreover, its six-month change, although still slightly negative, has improved. Although it is too early to conclude that economic activity will improve rapidly in the near term, the recent gains in both LEI and CEI suggest the current economic weakness could be easing soon.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2012

2013

 6-month


Nov  

Dec  

Jan

Jul to Jan

Leading Economic index (LEI) 

  91.9 r  

92.1 p  

92.7 p  


Percent Change 

  -0.1 r 

  0.2 p 

  0.7 p 

  -0.7 p

Diffusion  

50.0

60.0

60.0

50.0






Coincident Economic Index (CEI)  

96.2 r  

96.1 p 

  96.6 p  


Percent Change 

  -0.2 r 

  -0.1 p 

  0.5 p  

-0.1 p

Diffusion 

12.5

50.0

100.0

25.0






n.a. Not available   p Preliminary   r Revised



Indexes equal 100 in 2004



Source: The Conference Board

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