The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area Decreased in October

BRUSSELS, Nov. 29, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area decreased 0.2 percent in October and now stands at 104.9 (2004=100), after decreasing 0.3 percent in September and increasing 0.5 percent in August.

"The outlook for the Euro Area economy remains weak as the Euro Area LEI declined again in October. However, the six-month growth rate of the LEI has become less negative, pointing to a smaller chance of a deep contraction," says Bert Colijn, European Economist with The Conference Board. "Still, positive growth in economic activity in the near term has not become more likely. Business and consumer confidence indicators have been dragging the LEI lower, illustrating that weakness in the economy remains widespread. The increased stabilization of the Euro Area financial system has not yet translated into greater confidence in the non-financial economy. High unemployment, austerity measures in many countries, and continued uncertainty about the future of the monetary union are holding back the recovery."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, remained unchanged in October. The index now stands at 102.2 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*. The CEI decreased 0.2 percent in September and increased 0.2 percent in August.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.

The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for ten other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:

Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics) 

To view The Conference Board calendar for 2012 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).

NOTE: Beginning with this release, several data series in both The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area will now be provided by Haver Analytics, and not Thomson Reuters DataStream. As a result, some data series have been revised, but these changes do not affect the overall cyclical properties of the indexes.  For more information about these changes please contact indicators@conferenceboard.org.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes


2012


6-month 


Aug

Sep

Oct


Apr to Oct 







Leading Economic Index (LEI)

105.4p

105.1p

104.9p 



Percent Change

0.5p

-0.3p

-0.2p


-0.4p

Diffusion

50.0

42.9

28.6


42.9







Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

102.4p

102.2p

102.2p



Percent Change

0.2p

-0.2p

0.0p


0.2p

Diffusion

87.5

25.0

75.0


62.5







n.a. Not available     p Preliminary                r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source:  The Conference Board                   All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board



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