The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area Increased in November

Dec 23, 2015, 09:30 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Dec. 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.5 percent to 108.8 (2010=100) in November, following a 0.6 percent increase in October and a 0.3 percent decline in September.

"The Euro Area LEI continued to increase through November, with the financial indicators and consumer sentiment as the major drivers of improvement," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "Along with recent gains in consumer spending and industrial activities, advances in the LEI suggest that economic growth in the Euro Area economy should continue at a moderate pace and could even improve somewhat in 2016, unless negative sentiment becomes more persistent."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in November. The index now stands at 101.0* (2010 = 100). The CEI increased 0.1 percent in October and remained unchanged in September.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:

Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Consumer expectation of general economic condition of next 12 months (source: European Commission)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Systemic Stress Composite Indicator (source: European Central Bank)
Capital Goods New Orders, index (source: European Central Bank)
Markit® Manufacturing New Orders Index (source: Markit Economics)
Markit® Business Expectations Index, Service (source: Markit Economics) 

Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are capital goods new orders and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).

The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for twelve other individual countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.

NOTE: Next month's data release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

Beginning in January, we will no longer issue monthly Technical Notes and related documents for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area. We will post the data tables on the website and the release time will continue to be 9:30 AM ET.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

 

Summary Table of Composite Indexes




2015




6-month


Sep


Oct


Nov


May to
Nov










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

107.7

p

108.3

p

108.8

p



  Percent Change

-0.3

p

0.6

p

0.5

p

1.9

p

  Diffusion

50.0


75.0


75.0


62.5











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

100.8

p

100.9

p

101.0

p



  Percent Change

0.0

p

0.1

p

0.1

p

0.5

p

  Diffusion

25.0


75.0


87.5


75.0











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised






Indexes equal 100 in 2010









Source:  The Conference Board               All Rights Reserved




 

SOURCE The Conference Board



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