The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. Declined

13 Nov, 2015, 09:30 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Nov. 13, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. declined 0.3 percent in September to 112.2 (2010= 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent decline in July.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3 percent in September to 106.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in August, and a 0.1 percent increase in July.

The LEI for the U.K. has declined in four out of the most recent six months. As a result, its six-month growth rate has fallen into negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI remains on a modest growth trajectory with widespread strengths among its components. Taken together, the recent growth of the LEI suggests that there is an increasing risk that the current economic expansion may moderate in early 2016.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume, CBI Monthly Enquiry
Volume of Expected Output, CBI Monthly Enquiry
Consumer Confidence
Stock Prices, FTSE all share price index
Yield Spread, 10 years minus Bank Rate
Productivity, Whole Economy Index
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations

For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

 

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2015


6-month


Jul


Aug


Sep


Mar to
Sep










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

112.4

p

112.5

p

112.2

p



  Percent Change

-0.3

p

0.1

p

-0.3

p

-0.5

p

  Diffusion

42.9


71.4


50.0


42.9











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

106.1

p

106.4

p

106.7

p



  Percent Change

0.1

p

0.3

p

0.3

p

1.1

p

  Diffusion

75.0


75.0


75.0


100.0











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised






Indexes equal 100 in 2010









Source:  The Conference Board               All Rights Reserved




 

 

SOURCE The Conference Board



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