The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. Declined

Dec 15, 2015, 09:30 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Dec. 15, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. declined 0.1 percent in October to 111.9 (2010= 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October to 106.8 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in September, and a 0.3 percent increase in August.

In October, the LEI for the U.K. declined for the fifth time in the last six months. Consequently, its six-month growth rate has fallen deeper into negative territory. Meanwhile, the CEI remains on a modest growth trajectory with widespread strengths among its components. The recent deceleration in the growth of the LEI suggests that the economic expansion is likely to moderate in early 2016.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume, CBI Monthly Enquiry
Volume of Expected Output, CBI Monthly Enquiry
Consumer Confidence
Stock Prices, FTSE all share price index
Yield Spread, 10 years minus Bank Rate
Productivity, Whole Economy Index
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

NOTE: Next month's data release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. The data release will also include a comprehensive benchmark revision to the LEI, resulting in changes to the underlying components that makeup the index.

Beginning in January, we will no longer issue monthly Technical Notes and related documents for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.K. We will post the data tables on the website and the release time will continue to be 9:30 AM ET.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2015


6-month


Aug


Sep


Oct


Apr to Oct










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

112.4

p

112.0

p

111.9

p



  Percent Change

0.1

p

-0.4

p

-0.1

p

-1.1

p

  Diffusion

57.1


35.7


57.1


28.6











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

106.4

p

106.7

p

106.8

p



  Percent Change

0.3

p

0.3

p

0.1

p

1.2

p

  Diffusion

75.0


75.0


75.0


100.0











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised






Indexes equal 100 in 2010









Source:  The Conference Board               All Rights Reserved




 

SOURCE The Conference Board



RELATED LINKS

http://www.conference-board.org