The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declined

Feb 18, 2016, 10:00 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Feb. 18, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in January to 123.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decrease in December and a 0.5 percent increase in November.

"The U.S. LEI fell slightly in January, driven primarily by large declines in stock prices and further weakness in initial claims for unemployment insurance," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "Despite back-to-back monthly declines, the index doesn't signal a significant increase in the risk of recession, and its six-month growth rate remains consistent with a modest economic expansion through early 2016."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January to 113.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in December, and no change in November.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 120.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in December, and a 0.4 percent increase in November.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2015

2016


6-month


Nov.


Dec.


Jan.


Jul. to

Jan.



















Leading Index

123.8

r

123.4

r

123.2

p



  Percent Change

0.5


-0.3

r

-0.2

p

0.3


  Diffusion

60.0


35.0


55.0


55.0











Coincident Index

112.8

r

112.9

r

113.2

p



  Percent Change

0.0

r

0.1


0.3

p

1.0


  Diffusion

62.5


75.0


100.0


75.0











Lagging Index

119.7


119.9


120.0

p



  Percent Change

0.4

r

0.2


0.1

p

1.5


  Diffusion

85.7


57.1


71.4


64.3











p  Preliminary     r  Revised








Indexes equal 100 in 2010








Source:  The Conference Board







 

SOURCE The Conference Board



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