2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in November

NEW YORK, Dec. 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.8 percent in November to 98.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in October, and a 1.0 percent increase in September.   

"The LEI continues on a broad-based upward trend, suggesting gradually strengthening economic conditions through early 2014," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "Improving labor markets and new orders in manufacturing, combined with strong financial indicators, drove November's gain. However, consumers' outlook for the economy and the drop in housing permits continue to pose risks in 2014." 

"November data reflect a U.S. economy that is expanding modestly, discounting some renewal in activity after the government shutdown," said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. "The coincident economic index shows the economy expanding at a relatively slow pace. The trend in the leading economic index is stronger, signaling for some time that the economy is developing forward momentum, and will continue to strengthen through early 2014."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in November to 107.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in October, and a 0.3 percent increase in September.  

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) was unchanged in November, remaining at 119.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in October and a 0.6 percent increase in September.    

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes




2013


6-month


Sep 


Oct 


Nov


May to Nov









Leading index 

97.4

r

97.5


98.3

p


  Percent Change 

1.0

r

0.1

r

0.8

p

3.1

  Diffusion 

75.0


65.0


80.0


80.0









Coincident Index 

106.7

r

106.8

r

107.2

p


  Percent Change 

0.3

r

0.1

r

0.4

p

1.1

  Diffusion 

100.0


75.0


100.0


100.0









Lagging Index 

119.5

r

119.9

r

119.9

p


  Percent Change 

0.6

r

0.3


0.0 p 

p

1.5

  Diffusion 

78.6


71.4


42.9


64.3









n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised




Indexes equal 100 in 2004




Source: The Conference Board




 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

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