The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increases

NEW YORK, Aug. 22, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in July to 96.0 (2004 = 100), following no change in June, and a 0.3 percent increase in May.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board: "Following moderate growth in the last few months, the U.S. LEI picked up in July, with widespread gains among its components. The pace of the LEI's growth over the last six months has nearly doubled, pointing to a gradually strengthening expansion through the end of the year. In July, average workweek in manufacturing was the weakest component."

Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The improvement in the LEI, and pick up in the six-month growth rate, suggest better economic and job growth in the second half of 2013. However, the biggest uncertainties remain the pace of business spending and the impact of slower global growth on U.S. exports."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in July to 106.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in June, and a 0.3 percent increase in May.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) declined 0.2 percent in July to 118.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in June, and a 0.3 percent increase in May.

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2013

6-month


May

Jun

Jul

Jan to Jul






Leading index

95.4 r

95.4 r

96.0 p


     Percent Change

.3 r

.0

.6 p

2.0

     Diffusion

55.0

55.0

80.0

65.0






Coincident Index

106.0 r

106.1 r

106.3 p


     Percent Change

.3 r

.1 r

.2 p

1.6

     Diffusion

87.5

75.0

87.5

100.0






Lagging Index

118.2 r

118.4 r

118.2 p


     Percent Change

.3 r

.2 r

-.2 p

0.3

     Diffusion

64.3

64.3

21.4

21.4






n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board

 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM Index of New Orders 
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

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