2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increases

NEW YORK, Sept. 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.7 percent in August to 96.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in July, and no change in June.

"After a brief pause, the U.S. LEI rose sharply in July and August, resuming its upward trend," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "If the LEI's six-month growth rate, which has nearly doubled, continues in the coming months, economic growth should gradually strengthen through the end of the year. Despite weakness in residential construction, consumer expectations, and the stock market, improvements in the LEI's labor market and financial components, as well as new manufacturing orders, drove this month's gain."

"The latest reading points to more pep in the pace of economic activity in the near term," said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. "One unknown is how resilient confidence will remain, both consumer and business, given the mixed signals from the housing and labor markets. Perhaps the bigger question is a satisfactory resolution to federal budget squabbles."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in August to 106.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in July, and no change in June.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.3 percent in August to 118.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in July and a 0.3 percent increase in June.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes




2013


6-month


Jun


Jul


Aug


Feb to Aug









Leading index

95.4

r

95.9

r

96.6

p


  Percent Change

.0


.5

r

.7

p

2.1

  Diffusion

55.0


80.0


85.0


65.0









Coincident Index

106.0

r

106.1

r

106.3

p


  Percent Change

.0

r

.1

r

.2

p

0.9

  Diffusion

50.0


75.0


100.0


100.0









Lagging Index

118.4

r

118.3

r

118.6

p


  Percent Change

.3

r

-.1

r

.3

p

0.9

  Diffusion

64.3


35.7


64.3


35.7









n.a. Not available   p Preliminary   r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004



Source: The Conference Board






About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

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